Week 9 2025 · October 22, 2025
Middle Tennessee at Delaware, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Delaware beat Middle Tennessee 31–28, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Delaware wins 4 of 10.
Delaware won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Middle Tennessee it would win 78% of the time; with this day’s form, 42%. The numbers
Before kickoff Delaware was a 71% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 15:00 left): Face Mask on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards, worth 15 points of win probability to Middle Tennessee.
Final
 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 28 |
|---|---|
 Delaware Blue Hens | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +58 Delaware lucky · −58 Middle Tennessee
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Middle Tennessee wins 6, Delaware wins 4.
- 1 MTSU 41 DEL 7
- 2 MTSU 46 DEL 24
- 3 MTSU 34 DEL 17
- 4 MTSU 40 DEL 28
- 5 MTSU 34 DEL 27
- 6 MTSU 34 DEL 31
- 7 MTSU 30 DEL 33
- 8 MTSU 33 DEL 41
- 9 MTSU 9 DEL 24
- 10 MTSU 13 DEL 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Delaware won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Middle Tennessee it would win 78% of the time; with this day’s form, 42%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
36 points apart for Delaware: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee offenseEPA per play gained | −0.33 | +0.02 | worse by 0.35 |
| Middle Tennessee defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.27 | +0.13 | worse by 0.14 |
| Delaware offenseEPA per play gained | +0.27 | +0.16 | better by 0.11 |
| Delaware defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.33 | +0.12 | better by 0.45 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Middle Tennessee wins 58% of them, Delaware 42%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Delaware by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee by 17+ | 24.1% |
| Middle Tennessee by 9–16 | 15.2% |
| Middle Tennessee by 1–8 | 18.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Delaware by 1–8 | 17.0% |
| Delaware by 9–16 | 11.0% |
| Delaware by 17+ | 12.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Middle Tennessee 8 for 75 yards, Delaware 4 for 33 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 15:00 | Face Mask on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +17% MTSU +6.7 pts |
| Q2 9:51 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +1% DEL +0.3 pts |
| Q2 6:25 | Delay of Game on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 6:25 | Illegal Formation on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% MTSU 0.0 pts |
| Q2 4:15 | Intentional Grounding on Delaware, 8 yards | +1% MTSU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 4:15 | False Start on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MTSU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 4:15 | False Start on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MTSU +0.2 pts |
| Q2 1:16 | Pass Interference on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards | 0% DEL +1.6 pts |
| Q3 6:52 | Roughing the Passer on Delaware, 15 yards | +2% MTSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:11 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards | +2% DEL +1.6 pts |
| Q4 13:03 | False Start on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DEL +0.4 pts |
| Q4 2:38 | Illegal Block on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | 0% DEL +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Delaware’s chance of winning
As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:23 | Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedMiddle Tennessee converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% MTSU | MTSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 2:49 | Delaware fumbled and Middle Tennessee recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% MTSU | DEL: End of half |
| 3 | Q2 15:00 | Delaware converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expectedFace Mask on Middle Tennessee, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +15% MTSU | DEL: End of half |
| 4 | Q2 9:51 | Delaware converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedDelaware converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedDelaware was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expectedHolding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% DEL | DEL: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 6:25 | Middle Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedN. Reed made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 0 of 2 from 45+ beforeDelay of Game on Middle Tennessee, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsIllegal Formation on Middle Tennessee, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% DEL | MTSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 4:15 | Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedIntentional Grounding on Delaware, 8 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Delaware, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Delaware, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% MTSU | DEL: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 1:39 | Middle Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +4% MTSU | MTSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 13:03 | Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedMiddle Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedFalse Start on Middle Tennessee, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% DEL | MTSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Middle Tennessee 61% · Delaware 39%
- Final margin
- Delaware by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.8 for Delaware
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Middle Tennessee by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Middle Tennessee 58% · Delaware 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Middle Tennessee · 
Delaware
More from Week 9 2025
- Missouri State at New Mexico State MOST 24–17 · replay 44% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech WKU 28–27 · replay 47% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Florida International KENN 45–26 · replay 98% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Oklahoma MISS 34–26 · replay 38% for the winner
- South Alabama at Georgia State USA 38–31 · replay 39% for the winner