luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025

Central Michigan at Akron, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

Akron beat Central Michigan 28–22, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

An off day for Central Michigan: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Akron it would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%. The numbers

Before kickoff Central Michigan was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:11 left): Intentional Grounding on Central Michigan, 64 yards, worth 16 points of win probability to Akron.

Final

Central Michigan Chippewas 22
Akron Zips 28

October 4, 2025 · InfoCision Stadium · Closing line: Central Michigan −7

Luck index +24 Akron about even · −24 Central Michigan

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Central Michigan wins 2, Akron wins 8.

  1. 1 CMU 16 AKR 3
  2. 2 CMU 24 AKR 21
  3. 3 CMU 28 AKR 31
  4. 4 CMU 16 AKR 21
  5. 5 CMU 19 AKR 28
  6. 6 CMU 10 AKR 21
  7. 7 CMU 14 AKR 28
  8. 8 CMU 10 AKR 28
  9. 9 CMU 14 AKR 36
  10. 10 CMU 7 AKR 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Central Michigan

Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Akron it would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%.

34 points apart for Central Michigan: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Central Michigan offenseEPA per play gained +0.13 +0.02 better by 0.10
Central Michigan defenseEPA per play allowed +0.45 +0.08 worse by 0.37
Akron offenseEPA per play gained +0.45 −0.01 better by 0.46
Akron defenseEPA per play allowed +0.13 +0.06 worse by 0.06

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Central Michigan wins 24% of them, Akron 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Akron by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Central Michigan by 17+3.5%
Central Michigan by 9–166.5%
Central Michigan by 1–813.9%
Level after regulation4.0%
Akron by 1–822.1%
Akron by 9–1619.4%
Akron by 17+30.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 points to Akron: the final margin was Akron by 6, without the luck Akron by 4.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Graham, 46 yds made · 60% expected
  • O. Wiley, 48 yds missed · 55% expected
  • C. Graham, 35 yds made · 80% expected
  • C. Graham, 47 yds made · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Central Michigan 9 for 164 yards, Akron 8 for 69 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:50 False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% AKR +1.9 pts
Q1 9:04 Delay of Game on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CMU +1.2 pts
Q1 1:36 False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CMU +0.8 pts
Q1 0:40 False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% AKR +0.7 pts
Q2 11:07 Personal Foul on Central Michigan, 50 yards +8% AKR +3.1 pts
Q2 2:14 False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU 0.0 pts
Q2 0:30 Roughing the Passer on Akron, 14 yards +4% CMU +1.6 pts
Q2 0:11 Intentional Grounding on Central Michigan, 64 yards +16% AKR +4.6 pts
Q3 10:38 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Akron, 15 yards 0% CMU +0.9 pts
Q3 8:23 Personal Foul on Central Michigan, 15 yards +4% AKR +1.6 pts
Q3 0:52 False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% AKR +0.7 pts
Q4 13:03 Face Mask on Akron, 15 yards +1% CMU +1.6 pts
Q4 10:17 Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards +1% AKR +0.6 pts
Q4 6:14 False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU +0.6 pts
Q4 3:19 Illegal Substitution on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU +0.3 pts
Q4 1:57 Illegal Substitution on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU +0.3 pts
Q4 0:56 Delay of Game on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU +0.2 pts

When it happened

Akron’s chance of winning

As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Akron was ahead in it, below while Central Michigan was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:50 False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% AKR AKR: Punt
2 Q1 5:00 Akron converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% AKR AKR: Missed field goal
3 Q1 3:15 Akron converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% AKR AKR: Missed field goal
4 Q2 11:07 Personal Foul on Central Michigan, 50 yardsJudgment calls +8% AKR AKR: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:30 Roughing the Passer on Akron, 14 yardsJudgment calls +4% CMU CMU: End of half
6 Q2 0:11 Intentional Grounding on Central Michigan, 64 yardsJudgment calls +16% AKR AKR: Touchdown
7 Q3 13:43 Akron converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% AKR AKR: Touchdown
8 Q3 8:23 Personal Foul on Central Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% AKR AKR: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Central Michigan 21% · Akron 79%

Final margin
Akron by 6
Luck in points
1.2 for Akron
Luck-adjusted margin
Akron by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Central Michigan 24% · Akron 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Central Michigan · Akron

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