Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Western Michigan at Massachusetts, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Western Michigan beat Massachusetts 21–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Western Michigan wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Western Michigan was a 79% favorite.
Final
 Western Michigan Broncos | 21 |
|---|---|
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Western Michigan about even · −6 Massachusetts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Michigan wins 9, Massachusetts wins 1.
- 1 WMU 45 MASS 3
- 2 WMU 44 MASS 10
- 3 WMU 34 MASS 6
- 4 WMU 38 MASS 14
- 5 WMU 31 MASS 10
- 6 WMU 24 MASS 6
- 7 WMU 24 MASS 10
- 8 WMU 20 MASS 9
- 9 WMU 14 MASS 10
- 10 WMU 2 MASS 7
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Michigan wins 94% of them, Massachusetts 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Western Michigan by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Michigan by 17+ | 67.4% |
| Western Michigan by 9–16 | 16.2% |
| Western Michigan by 1–8 | 10.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Massachusetts by 1–8 | 3.4% |
| Massachusetts by 9–16 | 1.0% |
| Massachusetts by 17+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Morris, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- D. Morris, 46 yds missed · 61% expected
- P. Domschke, 48 yds missed · 56% expected
Penalties: Western Michigan 4 for 35 yards, Massachusetts 5 for 47 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:04 | Illegal Formation on Massachusetts, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% WMU +3.0 pts |
| Q1 8:08 | Personal Foul on Massachusetts, 15 yards | +8% WMU +4.6 pts |
| Q1 3:48 | Pass Interference on Western Michigan, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +4% MASS +2.5 pts |
| Q2 13:16 | Penalty on Massachusetts, 10 yards | +1% WMU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:30 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 12 yards | +3% WMU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 6:56 | Illegal Shift on Massachusetts, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% WMU +2.1 pts |
| Q3 1:26 | Offside on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +1.0 pts |
| Q4 12:43 | Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yards | +1% MASS +1.5 pts |
| Q4 5:30 | Illegal Substitution on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Massachusetts’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:04 | Illegal Formation on Massachusetts, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +5% WMU | WMU: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 8:08 | Personal Foul on Massachusetts, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% WMU | WMU: End of half |
| 3 | Q1 3:48 | Pass Interference on Western Michigan, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% MASS | MASS: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q2 14:28 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% MASS | MASS: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q2 12:01 | D. Morris missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +5% WMU | MASS: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 1:42 | P. Domschke missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 4 of 8 from 45+ before | +4% MASS | WMU: End of half |
| 7 | Q3 6:56 | Illegal Shift on Massachusetts, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +4% WMU | WMU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 4:29 | Western Michigan converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +6% WMU | WMU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Michigan 93% · Massachusetts 7%
- Final margin
- Western Michigan by 18
- Luck in points
- 7.6 for Western Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Western Michigan by 10.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Michigan 94% · Massachusetts 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Western Michigan · 
Massachusetts
More from Week 6 2025
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Buffalo BUF 31–30 · replay 68% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois M-OH 25–14 · replay 75% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Akron AKR 28–22 · replay 76% for the winner
- Kent State at Oklahoma OU 44–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner