luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025

Eastern Michigan at Buffalo, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

Buffalo beat Eastern Michigan 31–30, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Eastern Michigan had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 22 points of win probability to Eastern Michigan.

Before kickoff Buffalo was a 73% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:00 left): J. Howes made a 50-yard field goal, worth 46 points of win probability to Buffalo.

Final (OT)

Eastern Michigan Eagles 30
Buffalo Bulls 31

October 4, 2025 · UB Stadium · Closing line: Buffalo −9.5

Luck index +32 Buffalo lucky · −32 Eastern Michigan

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eastern Michigan wins 3, Buffalo wins 7.

  1. 1 EMU 31 BUF 12
  2. 2 EMU 30 BUF 21
  3. 3 EMU 30 BUF 27
  4. 4 EMU 34 BUF 37
  5. 5 EMU 17 BUF 22
  6. 6 EMU 19 BUF 27
  7. 7 EMU 16 BUF 27
  8. 8 EMU 17 BUF 31
  9. 9 EMU 10 BUF 30
  10. 10 EMU 3 BUF 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eastern Michigan wins 32% of them, Buffalo 68%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buffalo by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eastern Michigan by 17+6.3%
Eastern Michigan by 9–169.2%
Eastern Michigan by 1–814.5%
Level after regulation4.6%
Buffalo by 1–821.3%
Buffalo by 9–1618.0%
Buffalo by 17+26.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to Buffalo: the final margin was Buffalo by 1, without the luck Eastern Michigan by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • R. Kessinger, 47 yds missed · 60% expected
  • R. Kessinger, 42 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Howes, 39 yds missed · 75% expected
  • J. Howes, 50 yds made · 54% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eastern Michigan 6 for 70 yards, Buffalo 5 for 101 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 14:56 Pass Interference on Buffalo, 15 yards +6% EMU +2.9 pts
Q2 8:50 Pass Interference on Buffalo, 14 yards +5% EMU +2.0 pts
Q2 6:37 Pass Interference on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards +6% BUF +2.5 pts
Q2 6:29 Holding on Buffalo, 50 yards +9% EMU +3.1 pts
Q2 5:41 Pass Interference on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards +6% BUF +2.3 pts
Q2 0:53 Pass Interference on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards, wiping out the play +17% BUF +6.7 pts
Q3 10:06 Delay of Game on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BUF +1.4 pts
Q3 9:27 Intentional Grounding on Buffalo, 7 yards +6% EMU +2.0 pts
Q3 0:50 Pass Interference on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards +2% BUF +0.7 pts
Q3 0:00 Pass Interference on Buffalo, 15 yards +5% EMU +1.2 pts
Q4 0:57 Delay of Game on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +8% BUF +1.2 pts

When it happened

Buffalo’s chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Buffalo was ahead in it, below while Eastern Michigan was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:29 Holding on Buffalo, 50 yardsJudgment calls +8% EMU EMU: Punt
2 Q2 0:53 Pass Interference on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +17% BUF BUF: Punt
3 Q3 0:02 Buffalo converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% BUF BUF: Punt
4 Q4 10:30 Buffalo fumbled and Eastern Michigan recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% EMU BUF: Missed field goal
5 Q4 5:30 J. Howes missed a 39-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him +18% EMU BUF: Field goal
6 Q4 0:57 Delay of Game on Eastern Michigan, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% BUF BUF: Field goal
7 Q4 0:12 Buffalo converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% BUF BUF: Field goal
8 Q4 0:00 The game turned hereJ. Howes made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before +46% BUF –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eastern Michigan 61% · Buffalo 39%

Final margin
Buffalo by 1
Luck in points
3.1 for Buffalo
Luck-adjusted margin
Eastern Michigan by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Eastern Michigan 32% · Buffalo 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Eastern Michigan · Buffalo

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