Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
California at Stanford, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Stanford beat California 31–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Stanford wins 10 of 10. California had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to California.
An off day for California: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Stanford it would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff California was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:57 left): Return touchdown by Stanford, worth 32 points of win probability to Stanford.
Final
 California Golden Bears | 10 |
|---|---|
 Stanford Cardinal | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Stanford about even · −4 California
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. California wins 0, Stanford wins 10.
- 1 CAL 7 STAN 10
- 2 CAL 6 STAN 13
- 3 CAL 3 STAN 13
- 4 CAL 3 STAN 16
- 5 CAL 3 STAN 20
- 6 CAL 21 STAN 41
- 7 CAL 3 STAN 25
- 8 CAL 7 STAN 32
- 9 CAL 0 STAN 30
- 10 CAL 0 STAN 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for California
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Stanford it would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
50 points apart for California: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| California offenseEPA per play gained | −0.08 | +0.06 | worse by 0.14 |
| California defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.23 | +0.06 | better by 0.29 |
| Stanford offenseEPA per play gained | −0.23 | −0.02 | worse by 0.21 |
| Stanford defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.08 | +0.09 | better by 0.17 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
California wins 4% of them, Stanford 96%. The line is what actually happened: Stanford by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| California by 17+ | 0.2% |
| California by 9–16 | 1.1% |
| California by 1–8 | 2.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Stanford by 1–8 | 13.3% |
| Stanford by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Stanford by 17+ | 63.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Murray, 40 yds made · 74% expected
- E. Kenney, 23 yds blocked · 94% expected
- E. Kenney, 35 yds missed · 82% expected
- E. Kenney, 36 yds made · 80% expected
Penalties: California 12 for 100 yards, Stanford 6 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:54 | Holding on California, 8 yards | +1% STAN +0.5 pts |
| Q1 14:13 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% STAN +1.2 pts |
| Q1 13:02 | Illegal Snap on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAL +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:27 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAL +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:11 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:01 | Equipment Violation on Stanford, 5 yards | +6% CAL +2.3 pts |
| Q2 6:04 | Personal Foul on California, 15 yards | +4% STAN +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:41 | Illegal Substitution on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% STAN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:37 | Pass Interference on California, 15 yards | +5% STAN +1.8 pts |
| Q2 1:05 | Personal Foul on California, 2 yards | 0% STAN +0.1 pts |
| Q2 1:05 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STAN +0.2 pts |
| Q3 14:59 | Personal Foul on California, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +4% STAN +1.4 pts |
| Q3 12:25 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 11:01 | Delay of Game on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAL +0.2 pts |
| Q3 8:04 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% STAN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:59 | Pass Interference on California, 15 yards | +2% STAN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:15 | Illegal Substitution on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% STAN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 11:12 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAL +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Stanford’s chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:57 | California fumbled and Stanford recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by StanfordSpecial teams | +32% STAN | CAL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 11:01 | Equipment Violation on Stanford, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +6% CAL | CAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 9:29 | California converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +7% CAL | CAL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 1:37 | Pass Interference on California, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% STAN | STAN: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q2 1:17 | E. Kenney had a 23-yard field goal blockedKicks · 94% expected for him | +8% CAL | STAN: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q2 1:05 | California fumbled and Stanford recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Personal Foul on California, 2 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on California, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by StanfordSpecial teams | +30% STAN | CAL: End of half |
| 7 | Q3 8:42 | Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +5% CAL | STAN: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 1:31 | California fumbled and Stanford recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% STAN | CAL: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
California 0% · Stanford 100%
- Final margin
- Stanford by 21
- Luck in points
- 2.6 for California
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stanford by 23.6
- Replay with same day's form
- California 4% · Stanford 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
California · 
Stanford
More from Week 13 2025
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Miami at Virginia Tech MIA 34–17 · replay 61% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech PITT 42–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- Louisville at SMU SMU 38–6 · replay 93% for the winner
- Furman at Clemson CLEM 45–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Delaware at Wake Forest WAKE 52–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Syracuse at Notre Dame ND 70–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner