Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Nevada at Wyoming, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Nevada beat Wyoming 13–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Nevada wins 8 of 10. Wyoming had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 20 points of win probability to Wyoming.
An off day for Wyoming: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Nevada it would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers
Before kickoff Wyoming was a 65% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:00 left): Wyoming converted 4th & 3, worth 35 points of win probability to Wyoming.
Final
 Nevada Wolf Pack | 13 |
|---|---|
 Wyoming Cowboys | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Nevada about even · −15 Wyoming
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Nevada wins 8, Wyoming wins 2.
- 1 NEV 31 WYO 0
- 2 NEV 31 WYO 7
- 3 NEV 23 WYO 3
- 4 NEV 26 WYO 10
- 5 NEV 13 WYO 0
- 6 NEV 16 WYO 6
- 7 NEV 15 WYO 10
- 8 NEV 19 WYO 17
- 9 NEV 7 WYO 10
- 10 NEV 3 WYO 13
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Wyoming
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Nevada it would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
42 points apart for Wyoming: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada offenseEPA per play gained | −0.22 | +0.03 | worse by 0.25 |
| Nevada defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.33 | +0.09 | better by 0.42 |
| Wyoming offenseEPA per play gained | −0.33 | −0.01 | worse by 0.32 |
| Wyoming defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.22 | +0.05 | better by 0.27 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Nevada wins 85% of them, Wyoming 15%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Nevada by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Nevada by 17+ | 36.8% |
| Nevada by 9–16 | 24.9% |
| Nevada by 1–8 | 21.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Wyoming by 1–8 | 9.2% |
| Wyoming by 9–16 | 4.1% |
| Wyoming by 17+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. McFadden, 42 yds missed · 70% expected
- E. Sandvik, 32 yds missed · 84% expected
- J. McFadden, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- K. Anderson, 54 yds missed · 47% expected
- J. McFadden, 41 yds made · 71% expected
- J. McFadden, 43 yds made · 68% expected
Penalties: Nevada 9 for 66 yards, Wyoming 6 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offside on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% NEV +1.9 pts |
| Q1 8:28 | Offside on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% WYO +2.6 pts |
| Q2 13:31 | Holding on Nevada, 10 yards | +3% WYO +1.5 pts |
| Q2 13:31 | Delay of Game on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WYO +0.3 pts |
| Q2 10:59 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards | +1% NEV +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:15 | Holding on Nevada, 10 yards | +2% WYO +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:15 | Personal Foul on Wyoming, 15 yards | +4% NEV +1.6 pts |
| Q2 8:15 | Personal Foul on Wyoming, 15 yards | +4% NEV +1.6 pts |
| Q2 8:15 | Illegal Shift on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WYO +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:43 | Offside on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +9% NEV +3.3 pts |
| Q3 7:19 | Delay of Game on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NEV +0.5 pts |
| Q3 4:27 | Personal Foul on Nevada, 11 yards | +5% WYO +1.4 pts |
| Q3 4:27 | Face Mask on Nevada, 5 yards | +7% WYO +2.2 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NEV +1.0 pts |
| Q4 7:31 | Holding on Nevada, 10 yards | +2% WYO +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Wyoming’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:28 | Wyoming was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedWyoming was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedWyoming converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedJ. McFadden missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for himOffside on Nevada, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +11% WYO | WYO: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q2 13:31 | Nevada was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedHolding on Nevada, 10 yardsJudgment callsDelay of Game on Nevada, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% WYO | NEV: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 2:43 | J. McFadden made a 29-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for himOffside on Wyoming, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% NEV | NEV: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 1:12 | Nevada converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +8% NEV | NEV: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 9:09 | Wyoming was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedJ. McFadden made a 41-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him | +6% NEV | WYO: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 7:19 | Wyoming converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedWyoming was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedDelay of Game on Wyoming, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% NEV | WYO: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 1:27 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% WYO | WYO: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 2:00 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedWyoming converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedWyoming converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedWyoming was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedWyoming converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +35% WYO | WYO: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Nevada 65% · Wyoming 35%
- Final margin
- Nevada by 6
- Luck in points
- 2.8 for Nevada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Nevada by 3.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Nevada 85% · Wyoming 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Nevada · 
Wyoming
More from Week 13 2025
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- San José State at San Diego State SDSU 25–3 · replay 77% for the winner
- New Mexico at Air Force UNM 20–3 · replay 90% for the winner
- Colorado State at Boise State BOIS 49–21 · replay 96% for the winner
- Hawai'i at UNLV UNLV 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- BYU at Cincinnati BYU 26–14 · replay 36% for the winner