Week 13 2025 · November 21, 2025
Hawai'i at UNLV, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
UNLV beat Hawai'i 38–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UNLV wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Hawai'i: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against UNLV it would win 37% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers
Before kickoff UNLV was a 56% favorite.
Final
 Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 10 |
|---|---|
 UNLV Rebels | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 UNLV about even · −1 Hawai'i
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hawai'i wins 0, UNLV wins 10.
- 1 HAW 0 UNLV 9
- 2 HAW 5 UNLV 21
- 3 HAW 14 UNLV 35
- 4 HAW 13 UNLV 38
- 5 HAW 10 UNLV 38
- 6 HAW 10 UNLV 42
- 7 HAW 0 UNLV 35
- 8 HAW 7 UNLV 45
- 9 HAW 6 UNLV 48
- 10 HAW 0 UNLV 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Hawai'i
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against UNLV it would win 37% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
36 points apart for Hawai'i: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai'i offenseEPA per play gained | −0.02 | +0.12 | worse by 0.14 |
| Hawai'i defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.39 | +0.06 | worse by 0.34 |
| UNLV offenseEPA per play gained | +0.39 | +0.13 | better by 0.26 |
| UNLV defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.02 | +0.09 | better by 0.11 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Hawai'i wins 1% of them, UNLV 99%. The line is what actually happened: UNLV by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hawai'i by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Hawai'i by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Hawai'i by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| UNLV by 1–8 | 2.3% |
| UNLV by 9–16 | 5.5% |
| UNLV by 17+ | 91.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Villela, 44 yds made · 64% expected
- K. Matsuzawa, 45 yds made · 66% expected
Penalties: Hawai'i 10 for 98 yards, UNLV 5 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:25 | Pass Interference on Hawai'i, 15 yards | +4% UNLV +2.3 pts |
| Q1 7:07 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards | +7% UNLV +3.1 pts |
| Q1 5:37 | Face Mask on Hawai'i, 13 yards | +3% UNLV +1.5 pts |
| Q1 5:16 | False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HAW +0.4 pts |
| Q1 2:27 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% UNLV +2.0 pts |
| Q1 0:47 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UNLV +1.1 pts |
| Q2 11:53 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards | +3% UNLV +1.8 pts |
| Q2 9:02 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UNLV, 15 yards | +1% HAW +0.7 pts |
| Q2 4:19 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNLV +0.3 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on UNLV, 15 yards | +1% HAW +0.5 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards | +4% UNLV +2.7 pts |
| Q3 13:14 | Face Mask on UNLV, 15 yards | +4% HAW +3.5 pts |
| Q3 4:14 | Delay of Game on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNLV +0.5 pts |
| Q3 1:16 | Pass Interference on Hawai'i, 15 yards | 0% UNLV +0.8 pts |
| Q4 8:11 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UNLV, 15 yards | 0% HAW +0.9 pts |
When it happened
UNLV’s chance of winning
As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:25 | Pass Interference on Hawai'i, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% UNLV | UNLV: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 11:38 | UNLV converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +4% UNLV | UNLV: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 9:28 | R. Villela made a 44-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him | +5% UNLV | UNLV: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 7:07 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% UNLV | UNLV: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 3:47 | UNLV converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +5% UNLV | UNLV: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 2:27 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% UNLV | UNLV: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 15:00 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% UNLV | UNLV: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 13:14 | Face Mask on UNLV, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% HAW | HAW: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hawai'i 0% · UNLV 100%
- Final margin
- UNLV by 28
- Luck in points
- 7.3 for UNLV
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UNLV by 20.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Hawai'i 1% · UNLV 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Hawai'i · 
UNLV
More from Week 13 2025
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- San José State at San Diego State SDSU 25–3 · replay 77% for the winner
- Nevada at Wyoming NEV 13–7 · replay 85% for the winner
- New Mexico at Air Force UNM 20–3 · replay 90% for the winner
- Colorado State at Boise State BOIS 49–21 · replay 96% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- BYU at Cincinnati BYU 26–14 · replay 36% for the winner