luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025

New Mexico at Air Force, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

New Mexico beat Air Force 20–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, New Mexico wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff New Mexico was a 59% favorite.

Final

New Mexico Lobos 20
Air Force Falcons 3

November 22, 2025 · Falcon Stadium · Closing line: New Mexico −3.5

Luck index +10 New Mexico about even · −10 Air Force

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. New Mexico wins 9, Air Force wins 1.

  1. 1 UNM 27 AF 0
  2. 2 UNM 28 AF 7
  3. 3 UNM 28 AF 10
  4. 4 UNM 16 AF 0
  5. 5 UNM 23 AF 10
  6. 6 UNM 10 AF 0
  7. 7 UNM 9 AF 0
  8. 8 UNM 13 AF 7
  9. 9 UNM 10 AF 7
  10. 10 UNM 3 AF 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

New Mexico wins 90% of them, Air Force 10%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: New Mexico by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
New Mexico by 17+31.9%
New Mexico by 9–1628.7%
New Mexico by 1–822.5%
Level after regulation6.9%
Air Force by 1–87.0%
Air Force by 9–162.5%
Air Force by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to New Mexico: the final margin was New Mexico by 17, without the luck New Mexico by 14.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Drzewiecki, 27 yds made · 89% expected
  • R. Tubbs, 27 yds made · 90% expected
  • L. Drzewiecki, 23 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: New Mexico 4 for 35 yards, Air Force 0 for 0 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:59 Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards 0% AF +0.6 pts
Q1 1:28 False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% AF +1.0 pts
Q2 1:31 False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% AF +0.3 pts
Q4 3:55 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on New Mexico, 15 yards 0% AF +0.9 pts

When it happened

Air Force’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Air Force was ahead in it, below while New Mexico was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:02 Air Force converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +3% AF AF: Punt
2 Q1 1:28 False Start on New Mexico, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% AF AF: Turnover
3 Q1 1:05 New Mexico converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +3% UNM UNM: Touchdown
4 Q2 14:10 New Mexico converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +3% UNM UNM: Touchdown
5 Q2 6:58 Air Force was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +2% UNM AF: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 6:36 Air Force converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +2% AF AF: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 13:39 Air Force converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +2% AF AF: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 10:11 Air Force converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +2% AF AF: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

New Mexico 99% · Air Force 1%

Final margin
New Mexico by 17
Luck in points
2.3 for New Mexico
Luck-adjusted margin
New Mexico by 14.7
Replay with same day's form
New Mexico 90% · Air Force 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · New Mexico · Air Force

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