Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
San José State at San Diego State, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
San Diego State beat San José State 25–3, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff San Diego State was a 74% favorite.
Final
 San José State Spartans | 3 |
|---|---|
 San Diego State Aztecs | 25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 San Diego State about even · −23 San José State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. San José State wins 2, San Diego State wins 8.
- 1 SJSU 24 SDSU 10
- 2 SJSU 28 SDSU 24
- 3 SJSU 12 SDSU 14
- 4 SJSU 20 SDSU 24
- 5 SJSU 17 SDSU 24
- 6 SJSU 0 SDSU 10
- 7 SJSU 7 SDSU 20
- 8 SJSU 3 SDSU 19
- 9 SJSU 7 SDSU 27
- 10 SJSU 3 SDSU 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
San José State wins 23% of them, San Diego State 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: San Diego State by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| San José State by 17+ | 2.7% |
| San José State by 9–16 | 6.9% |
| San José State by 1–8 | 11.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| San Diego State by 1–8 | 25.9% |
| San Diego State by 9–16 | 18.5% |
| San Diego State by 17+ | 32.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Lynch, 43 yds missed · 64% expected
- G. Plascencia, 35 yds made · 85% expected
- M. Brown, 37 yds made · 77% expected
- M. Brown, 39 yds missed · 74% expected
Penalties: San José State 3 for 35 yards, San Diego State 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 5:59 | Pass Interference on San Diego State, 15 yards | +1% SJSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:03 | False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SDSU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 14:01 | Ineligible Downfield on San Diego State, 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% SJSU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 12:00 | Pass Interference on San José State, 15 yards | 0% SDSU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 8:41 | Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% SJSU +4.1 pts |
| Q4 4:30 | Chop Block on San José State, 15 yards | 0% SDSU +1.5 pts |
When it happened
San Diego State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:14 | San Diego State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedSan Diego State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% SDSU | SDSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 6:17 | D. Lynch missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him | +3% SDSU | SJSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 0:11 | San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +2% SJSU | SDSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 14:05 | San José State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +2% SJSU | SJSU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 11:49 | San José State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +3% SJSU | SJSU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 3:17 | M. Brown missed a 39-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him | +4% SDSU | SJSU: End of half |
| 7 | Q3 10:18 | San José State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +2% SJSU | SJSU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 8:31 | San José State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +2% SDSU | SJSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
San José State 0% · San Diego State 100%
- Final margin
- San Diego State by 22
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for San Diego State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- San Diego State by 18.0
- Replay with same day's form
- San José State 23% · San Diego State 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
San José State · 
San Diego State
More from Week 13 2025
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Nevada at Wyoming NEV 13–7 · replay 85% for the winner
- New Mexico at Air Force UNM 20–3 · replay 90% for the winner
- Colorado State at Boise State BOIS 49–21 · replay 96% for the winner
- Hawai'i at UNLV UNLV 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- BYU at Cincinnati BYU 26–14 · replay 36% for the winner