Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Akron at Ball State, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Ball State beat Akron 42–28, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Ball State wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 24 points of win probability to Ball State.
Before kickoff Akron was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:17 left): Ball State converted 3rd & 8, worth 16 points of win probability to Ball State.
Final
 Akron Zips | 28 |
|---|---|
 Ball State Cardinals | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Ball State lucky · −49 Akron
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Akron wins 5, Ball State wins 5.
- 1 AKR 48 BALL 17
- 2 AKR 27 BALL 7
- 3 AKR 40 BALL 27
- 4 AKR 27 BALL 19
- 5 AKR 34 BALL 31
- 6 AKR 32 BALL 35
- 7 AKR 7 BALL 14
- 8 AKR 34 BALL 45
- 9 AKR 27 BALL 45
- 10 AKR 20 BALL 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Akron wins 49% of them, Ball State 51%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ball State by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Akron by 17+ | 17.3% |
| Akron by 9–16 | 11.7% |
| Akron by 1–8 | 16.9% |
| Level after regulation | 3.5% |
| Ball State by 1–8 | 17.9% |
| Ball State by 9–16 | 13.2% |
| Ball State by 17+ | 19.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Holmer, 53 yds missed · 48% expected
- M. Schramm, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- M. Schramm, 19 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Akron 9 for 74 yards, Ball State 6 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:16 | Offside on Akron, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% BALL +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:39 | False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% AKR +0.7 pts |
| Q2 10:02 | Personal Foul on Akron, 15 yards | +2% BALL +1.1 pts |
| Q2 7:46 | False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% AKR +0.5 pts |
| Q2 7:32 | Offside on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BALL +0.4 pts |
| Q2 2:04 | Personal Foul on Ball State, 15 yards | 0% AKR +1.3 pts |
| Q2 1:24 | Illegal Formation on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | +15% AKR +1.8 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | Holding on Akron, 10 yards | +4% BALL +1.5 pts |
| Q3 9:54 | Pass Interference on Ball State, 15 yards | +2% AKR +0.8 pts |
| Q3 7:28 | Pass Interference on Akron, 15 yards | +5% BALL +1.7 pts |
| Q4 14:13 | Pass Interference on Akron, 15 yards | +10% BALL +2.7 pts |
| Q4 14:08 | False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AKR +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:08 | Offside on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BALL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 11:36 | Illegal Substitution on Akron, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% BALL 0.0 pts |
| Q4 0:02 | Delay of Game on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AKR +1.7 pts |
When it happened
Ball State’s chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:42 | Akron converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedAkron’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% AKR | AKR: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 2:14 | Ball State converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 16% expected | +8% BALL | BALL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 1:24 | Illegal Formation on Akron, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +15% AKR | BALL: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 12:39 | Akron was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +9% BALL | AKR: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 7:28 | M. Schramm made a 29-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for himPass Interference on Akron, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% BALL | AKR: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 14:13 | Pass Interference on Akron, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +10% BALL | BALL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 13:17 | Ball State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedBall State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +16% BALL | BALL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 6:27 | Akron was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +8% BALL | AKR: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Akron 14% · Ball State 86%
- Final margin
- Ball State by 14
- Luck in points
- 6.6 for Ball State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ball State by 7.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Akron 49% · Ball State 51% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Akron · 
Ball State
More from Week 8 2025
- Buffalo at Massachusetts BUF 28–21 · replay 43% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Bowling Green CMU 27–6 · replay 70% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH) M-OH 44–30 · replay 88% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Ohio OHIO 48–21 · replay 97% for the winner
- Kent State at Toledo TOL 45–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner