Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Buffalo at Massachusetts, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Buffalo beat Massachusetts 28–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Buffalo wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 19 points of win probability to Buffalo.
Buffalo won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Massachusetts it would win 81% of the time; with this day’s form, 43%. The numbers
Before kickoff Buffalo was an 86% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:09 left): D. Morris missed a 54-yard field goal, worth 14 points of win probability to Buffalo.
Final
 Buffalo Bulls | 28 |
|---|---|
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +57 Buffalo lucky · −57 Massachusetts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Buffalo wins 4, Massachusetts wins 6.
- 1 BUF 33 MASS 10
- 2 BUF 34 MASS 19
- 3 BUF 16 MASS 7
- 4 BUF 27 MASS 24
- 5 BUF 23 MASS 25
- 6 BUF 13 MASS 19
- 7 BUF 14 MASS 25
- 8 BUF 7 MASS 23
- 9 BUF 14 MASS 33
- 10 BUF 3 MASS 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Buffalo won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Massachusetts it would win 81% of the time; with this day’s form, 43%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for Buffalo: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.04 | better by 0.03 |
| Buffalo defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.04 | better by 0.01 |
| Massachusetts offenseEPA per play gained | +0.03 | +0.01 | better by 0.01 |
| Massachusetts defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.08 | better by 0.01 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Buffalo wins 43% of them, Massachusetts 57%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buffalo by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Buffalo by 17+ | 12.4% |
| Buffalo by 9–16 | 13.4% |
| Buffalo by 1–8 | 16.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.6% |
| Massachusetts by 1–8 | 21.0% |
| Massachusetts by 9–16 | 16.1% |
| Massachusetts by 17+ | 17.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Howes, 23 yds made · 92% expected
- J. Howes, 47 yds made · 59% expected
- D. Morris, 54 yds missed · 47% expected
Penalties: Buffalo 9 for 49 yards, Massachusetts 10 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:30 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BUF +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:16 | Illegal Substitution on Massachusetts, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% BUF +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:10 | False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MASS +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:26 | Holding on Buffalo, 9 yards | +1% MASS +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:11 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BUF +1.4 pts |
| Q3 7:38 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 2 yards | +2% BUF +0.8 pts |
| Q3 6:05 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BUF +0.8 pts |
| Q3 5:35 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 15 yards | +5% BUF +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:07 | Intentional Grounding on Buffalo, 0 yards | 0% MASS 0.0 pts |
| Q3 4:47 | Intentional Grounding on Massachusetts, 0 yards | 0% BUF 0.0 pts |
| Q3 3:50 | Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yards | +2% BUF +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:26 | Intentional Grounding on Massachusetts, 0 yards | 0% BUF 0.0 pts |
| Q4 14:21 | Offside on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MASS +0.4 pts |
| Q4 11:34 | Holding on Buffalo, 10 yards | +3% MASS +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:19 | Illegal Forward Pass on Buffalo, 5 yards | +1% MASS +0.3 pts |
| Q4 4:56 | Holding on Buffalo, 10 yards | +9% MASS +1.3 pts |
| Q4 2:31 | Delay of Game on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% MASS +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:46 | Holding on Buffalo, 0 yards | 0% MASS 0.0 pts |
| Q4 0:54 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Massachusetts, 9 yards | +4% BUF +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Massachusetts’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 5:37 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +8% MASS | MASS: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 12:32 | Buffalo converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +9% BUF | BUF: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 9:13 | Massachusetts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +8% MASS | MASS: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q4 6:14 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +8% MASS | MASS: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 4:56 | Holding on Buffalo, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +9% MASS | MASS: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 3:14 | Massachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +8% BUF | MASS: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 3:09 | D. Morris missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 47% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before | +14% BUF | MASS: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 1:58 | Buffalo converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +14% BUF | BUF: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Buffalo 46% · Massachusetts 54%
- Final margin
- Buffalo by 7
- Luck in points
- 7.7 for Buffalo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Massachusetts by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Buffalo 43% · Massachusetts 57% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Buffalo · 
Massachusetts
More from Week 8 2025
- Akron at Ball State BALL 42–28 · replay 51% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Bowling Green CMU 27–6 · replay 70% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH) M-OH 44–30 · replay 88% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Ohio OHIO 48–21 · replay 97% for the winner
- Kent State at Toledo TOL 45–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner