Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH), Week 8 2025

Final

Eastern Michigan Eagles	30
Miami (OH) RedHawks	44

October 18, 2025 · Yager Stadium · Closing line: Miami (OH) −12.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +12 Miami (OH) about even · −12 Eastern Michigan

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eastern Michigan wins 1, Miami (OH) wins 9.

1 EMU 14 M-OH 7
2 EMU 17 M-OH 20
3 EMU 31 M-OH 38
4 EMU 13 M-OH 24
5 EMU 17 M-OH 31
6 EMU 10 M-OH 27
7 EMU 21 M-OH 42
8 EMU 21 M-OH 45
9 EMU 7 M-OH 37
10 EMU 10 M-OH 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eastern Michigan wins 12% of them, Miami (OH) 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Miami (OH) by 14.

Actual: Miami (OH) by 14 494235282114707142128354249 ← Eastern Michigan win by Miami (OH) win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Eastern Michigan by 17+	1.4%
Eastern Michigan by 9–16	3.4%
Eastern Michigan by 1–8	7.0%
Level after regulation	1.6%
Miami (OH) by 1–8	18.8%
Miami (OH) by 9–16	16.6%
Miami (OH) by 17+	51.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

3rd & 4th downs +4% M-OH

Pre-snap flags +2% EMU

Fumble bounces +1% EMU

All luck +1% M-OH

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 points to Eastern Michigan: the final margin was Miami (OH) by 14, without the luck Miami (OH) by 14.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Eastern Michigan 4 for 24 yards, Miami (OH) 8 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 5:19	Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards	+1% M-OH +0.6 pts
Q1 3:53	Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards	+2% EMU +1.7 pts
Q2 13:23	Face Mask on Miami (OH), 15 yards	+1% EMU +0.9 pts
Q2 7:00	Face Mask on Miami (OH), 15 yards	+1% EMU +1.3 pts
Q3 14:54	False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap	+2% EMU +1.2 pts
Q3 7:01	False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% EMU +1.1 pts
Q3 4:46	False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% EMU +0.8 pts
Q3 4:46	False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% M-OH +1.4 pts
Q4 14:47	Block Below the Waist on Eastern Michigan, 4 yards	0% M-OH +1.5 pts
Q4 13:12	Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards	0% EMU +1.1 pts
Q4 11:21	Delay of Game on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap	0% EMU +0.4 pts
Q4 10:43	Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards	0% EMU +1.3 pts

When it happened

Miami (OH)’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Miami (OH) 50% Eastern Michigan Q1Q2Q3Q4 2345678

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Miami (OH) was ahead in it, below while Eastern Michigan was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 13:07	Miami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected	+2% EMU	M-OH: Punt
2	Q1 11:49	Eastern Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected	+2% M-OH	EMU: Punt
3	Q1 5:56	Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected	+3% M-OH	M-OH: Touchdown
4	Q1 3:53	Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yardsJudgment calls	+2% EMU	EMU: Touchdown
5	Q1 2:05	Miami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected	+2% EMU	M-OH: Touchdown
6	Q2 14:44	Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 18% expected	+3% M-OH	M-OH: Touchdown
7	Q2 0:39	Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected	+2% EMU	EMU: Touchdown
8	Q3 10:25	Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected	+4% EMU	EMU: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eastern Michigan 1% · Miami (OH) 99%

Final margin: Miami (OH) by 14
Luck in points: 0.8 for Eastern Michigan
Luck-adjusted margin: Miami (OH) by 14.8
Replay with same day's form: Eastern Michigan 12% · Miami (OH) 88% unchanged: why

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 50%Fumble bounces 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 0%Pre-snap flags 100%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

Miami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 7Q1 13:07
Eastern Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 6Q1 11:49
Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 6Q1 5:56
Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yardsQ1 3:53
Miami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 1Q1 2:05
Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 15Q2 14:44
Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 6Q2 0:39
Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 7Q3 10:25

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Eastern Michigan · Miami (OH)

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