Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Louisiana at South Alabama, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisiana beat South Alabama 31–22, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff South Alabama was a 59% favorite.
Final
 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 31 |
|---|---|
 South Alabama Jaguars | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Louisiana lucky · −34 South Alabama
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Louisiana wins 7, South Alabama wins 3.
- 1 UL 41 USA 10
- 2 UL 28 USA 7
- 3 UL 30 USA 14
- 4 UL 34 USA 21
- 5 UL 27 USA 17
- 6 UL 13 USA 7
- 7 UL 41 USA 38
- 8 UL 17 USA 20
- 9 UL 21 USA 27
- 10 UL 28 USA 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Louisiana wins 66% of them, South Alabama 34%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Louisiana by 17+ | 23.3% |
| Louisiana by 9–16 | 17.6% |
| Louisiana by 1–8 | 22.7% |
| Level after regulation | 7.3% |
| South Alabama by 1–8 | 16.8% |
| South Alabama by 9–16 | 7.2% |
| South Alabama by 17+ | 5.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Sterner, 32 yds made · 85% expected
- T. Sterner, 53 yds missed · 49% expected
Penalties: Louisiana 8 for 80 yards, South Alabama 5 for 37 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:08 | Offside on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USA +0.9 pts |
| Q1 12:12 | Face Mask on South Alabama, 15 yards | +3% UL +1.6 pts |
| Q1 8:05 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% UL +2.6 pts |
| Q2 11:42 | Illegal Formation on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% UL +1.1 pts |
| Q2 7:13 | Delay of Game on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UL +0.4 pts |
| Q2 2:33 | False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:36 | Unnecessary Roughness on Louisiana, 30 yards | +6% USA +2.6 pts |
| Q2 1:26 | Illegal Motion on Louisiana, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% USA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 12:50 | Unnecessary Roughness on South Alabama, 2 yards | +1% UL +0.8 pts |
| Q3 8:47 | Roughing the Passer on Louisiana, 15 yards | +2% USA +3.0 pts |
| Q3 5:03 | False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USA +0.9 pts |
| Q4 8:10 | Pass Interference on Louisiana, 15 yards | +4% USA +1.3 pts |
| Q4 2:47 | Offside on Louisiana, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% USA 0.0 pts |
When it happened
South Alabama’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:21 | Louisiana converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +5% UL | UL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 4:06 | Louisiana converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +5% UL | UL: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 3:30 | Louisiana converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +5% UL | UL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 1:36 | Unnecessary Roughness on Louisiana, 30 yardsJudgment calls | +6% USA | USA: End of half |
| 5 | Q4 7:33 | South Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +4% UL | USA: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 4:32 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +6% USA | USA: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 3:06 | South Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +7% UL | USA: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 2:41 | South Alabama was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +7% UL | USA: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Louisiana 94% · South Alabama 6%
- Final margin
- Louisiana by 9
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for South Alabama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisiana by 9.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Louisiana 66% · South Alabama 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Louisiana · 
South Alabama
More from Week 10 2025
- Marshall at Coastal Carolina CCU 44–27 · replay 80% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Troy ARST 23–10 · replay 81% for the winner
- Old Dominion at UL Monroe ODU 31–6 · replay 84% for the winner
- James Madison at Texas State JMU 52–20 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner