luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025

Tulsa at Army, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

Tulsa beat Army 26–25, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Tulsa wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Tulsa.

Before kickoff Army was a 74% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:36 left): Army was stopped on 4th & 3, worth 19 points of win probability to Tulsa.

Final

Tulsa Golden Hurricane 26
Army Black Knights 25

November 22, 2025 · Michie Stadium · Closing line: Army −10

Luck index +45 Tulsa lucky · −45 Army

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Tulsa wins 5, Army wins 5.

  1. 1 TLSA 42 ARMY 16
  2. 2 TLSA 34 ARMY 17
  3. 3 TLSA 31 ARMY 20
  4. 4 TLSA 24 ARMY 17
  5. 5 TLSA 34 ARMY 31
  6. 6 TLSA 14 ARMY 16
  7. 7 TLSA 17 ARMY 21
  8. 8 TLSA 17 ARMY 24
  9. 9 TLSA 21 ARMY 33
  10. 10 TLSA 14 ARMY 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Tulsa wins 55% of them, Army 45%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tulsa by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Tulsa by 17+15.2%
Tulsa by 9–1617.1%
Tulsa by 1–819.8%
Level after regulation3.3%
Army by 1–825.3%
Army by 9–1610.0%
Army by 17+9.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 points to Tulsa: the final margin was Tulsa by 1, without the luck Tulsa by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • S. Morgan, 47 yds blocked · 60% expected
  • D. Jones, 33 yds made · 82% expected
  • S. Morgan, 48 yds made · 57% expected
  • S. Morgan, 27 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Tulsa 7 for 60 yards, Army 1 for 11 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:26 Pass Interference on Army, 11 yards +4% TLSA +2.4 pts
Q1 6:22 Offside on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARMY +0.5 pts
Q1 4:49 Disconcerting Signals on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARMY +0.9 pts
Q1 1:26 Ineligible Downfield on Tulsa, 5 yards +2% ARMY +1.0 pts
Q2 7:59 Illegal Block on Tulsa, 10 yards +3% ARMY +1.3 pts
Q3 8:53 Personal Foul on Tulsa, 15 yards +1% ARMY +1.1 pts
Q3 4:14 Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% ARMY +5.1 pts
Q4 5:22 Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards +2% ARMY +1.5 pts

When it happened

Army’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Army was ahead in it, below while Tulsa was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:56 Army was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +6% TLSA ARMY: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:06 Tulsa converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% TLSA TLSA: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:47 Army converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedArmy’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +12% ARMY ARMY: Touchdown
4 Q3 4:14 Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% ARMY ARMY: Punt
5 Q4 1:53 Tulsa’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% ARMY TLSA: End of game
6 Q4 1:36 Army was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +19% TLSA ARMY: End of game
7 Q4 0:39 Tulsa converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +7% TLSA TLSA: End of game
8 Q4 0:12 S. Morgan made a 27-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +6% TLSA –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Tulsa 51% · Army 49%

Final margin
Tulsa by 1
Luck in points
0.8 for Tulsa
Luck-adjusted margin
Tulsa by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Tulsa 55% · Army 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Tulsa · Army

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