luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025

East Carolina at UTSA, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

UTSA beat East Carolina 58–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UTSA wins 10 of 10.

An off day for East Carolina: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against UTSA it would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers

Before kickoff East Carolina was a 54% favorite.

Final

East Carolina Pirates 24
UTSA Roadrunners 58

November 22, 2025 · Alamodome · Closing line: East Carolina −1.5

Luck index +1 UTSA about even · −1 East Carolina

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. East Carolina wins 0, UTSA wins 10.

  1. 1 ECU 24 UTSA 37
  2. 2 ECU 28 UTSA 48
  3. 3 ECU 27 UTSA 52
  4. 4 ECU 14 UTSA 42
  5. 5 ECU 34 UTSA 66
  6. 6 ECU 17 UTSA 55
  7. 7 ECU 17 UTSA 59
  8. 8 ECU 10 UTSA 56
  9. 9 ECU 27 UTSA 77
  10. 10 ECU 9 UTSA 69

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for East Carolina

Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against UTSA it would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.

35 points apart for East Carolina: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
East Carolina offenseEPA per play gained −0.47 +0.10 worse by 0.57
East Carolina defenseEPA per play allowed +0.42 +0.05 worse by 0.37
UTSA offenseEPA per play gained +0.42 +0.08 better by 0.34
UTSA defenseEPA per play allowed −0.47 +0.05 better by 0.52

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

East Carolina wins 1% of them, UTSA 99%. The line is what actually happened: UTSA by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
East Carolina by 17+0.0%
East Carolina by 9–160.1%
East Carolina by 1–80.4%
Level after regulation0.1%
UTSA by 1–81.4%
UTSA by 9–163.9%
UTSA by 17+94.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.7 points to UTSA: the final margin was UTSA by 34, without the luck UTSA by 23.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Petro, 25 yds made · 91% expected
  • N. Mazzie, 32 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Petro, 37 yds made · 77% expected
  • M. Petro, 37 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: East Carolina 12 for 120 yards, UTSA 9 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:20 Personal Foul on East Carolina, 15 yards +4% UTSA +1.6 pts
Q1 8:57 False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ECU +1.2 pts
Q1 7:51 Targeting on East Carolina, 15 yards +6% UTSA +3.1 pts
Q1 0:36 False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% UTSA +1.6 pts
Q2 7:24 False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTSA +0.3 pts
Q2 4:46 Pass Interference on East Carolina, 15 yards 0% UTSA +1.6 pts
Q2 2:40 Pass Interference on UTSA, 14 yards 0% ECU +1.6 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTSA +0.5 pts
Q2 0:36 Personal Foul on East Carolina, 15 yards 0% UTSA +1.6 pts
Q3 13:32 False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ECU +0.7 pts
Q3 12:20 Roughing the Kicker on East Carolina, 15 yards 0% UTSA +3.2 pts
Q3 11:43 False Start on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ECU +0.4 pts
Q3 1:08 Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards 0% UTSA +0.3 pts
Q4 12:58 Holding on UTSA, 2 yards, wiping out the play +3% UTSA +10.5 pts
Q4 11:22 Delay of Game on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ECU +1.2 pts
Q4 9:46 False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTSA +1.1 pts
Q4 9:46 False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTSA +0.7 pts
Q4 9:46 False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTSA +0.6 pts
Q4 9:13 Roughing the Passer on UTSA, 14 yards 0% ECU +4.2 pts
Q4 8:41 Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards 0% UTSA +1.5 pts
Q4 7:42 Offside on UTSA, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% ECU +0.4 pts

When it happened

UTSA’s chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UTSA was ahead in it, below while East Carolina was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:20 Personal Foul on East Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% UTSA UTSA: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:57 False Start on UTSA, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% ECU ECU: Punt
3 Q1 7:51 Targeting on East Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% UTSA UTSA: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:06 UTSA converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% UTSA UTSA: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:58 East Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +2% UTSA ECU: Punt
6 Q1 2:34 UTSA was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +3% ECU UTSA: Punt
7 Q1 0:36 False Start on East Carolina, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% UTSA UTSA: Touchdown
8 Q4 12:58 Holding on UTSA, 2 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% UTSA ECU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

East Carolina 0% · UTSA 100%

Final margin
UTSA by 34
Luck in points
10.7 for UTSA
Luck-adjusted margin
UTSA by 23.3
Replay with same day's form
East Carolina 1% · UTSA 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · East Carolina · UTSA

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