Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Florida at Kentucky, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Kentucky beat Florida 38–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kentucky wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Florida: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Kentucky it would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers
Before kickoff Florida was a 61% favorite.
Final
 Florida Gators | 7 |
|---|---|
 Kentucky Wildcats | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Kentucky about even · −1 Florida
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida wins 0, Kentucky wins 10.
- 1 FLA 21 UK 27
- 2 FLA 16 UK 28
- 3 FLA 14 UK 30
- 4 FLA 3 UK 24
- 5 FLA 7 UK 31
- 6 FLA 10 UK 38
- 7 FLA 7 UK 40
- 8 FLA 7 UK 42
- 9 FLA 0 UK 41
- 10 FLA 10 UK 58
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Florida
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Kentucky it would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
44 points apart for Florida: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.06 | better by 0.05 |
| Florida defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.35 | +0.05 | worse by 0.30 |
| Kentucky offenseEPA per play gained | +0.35 | −0.02 | better by 0.37 |
| Kentucky defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.06 | worse by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida wins 1% of them, Kentucky 99%. The line is what actually happened: Kentucky by 31.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Florida by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Florida by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Kentucky by 1–8 | 5.5% |
| Kentucky by 9–16 | 9.6% |
| Kentucky by 17+ | 83.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Florida 2 for 20 yards, Kentucky 1 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:29 | Illegal Formation on Florida, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% UK +2.2 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards | +2% FLA +1.3 pts |
| Q3 4:13 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Florida, 15 yards | +1% UK +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Kentucky’s chance of winning
As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:42 | Florida converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +6% FLA | FLA: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 5:28 | Florida converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +4% FLA | FLA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:29 | Illegal Formation on Florida, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +5% UK | UK: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 1:12 | Florida converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +5% FLA | FLA: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 14:50 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% UK | UK: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 9:43 | Florida fumbled and Kentucky recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% UK | FLA: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 6:06 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +3% UK | UK: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 13:43 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +4% UK | UK: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida 0% · Kentucky 100%
- Final margin
- Kentucky by 31
- Luck in points
- 4.8 for Kentucky
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kentucky by 26.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida 1% · Kentucky 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Florida · 
Kentucky
More from Week 11 2025
- Texas A&M at Missouri TA&M 38–17 · replay 66% for the winner
- Auburn at Vanderbilt VAN 45–38 · replay 89% for the winner
- LSU at Alabama ALA 20–9 · replay 91% for the winner
- Georgia at Mississippi State UGA 41–21 · replay 99% for the winner
- The Citadel at Ole Miss MISS 49–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner