Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
LSU at Alabama, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Alabama beat LSU 20–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Alabama wins 9 of 10. LSU had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to LSU.
Before kickoff Alabama was a 74% favorite.
Final
 LSU Tigers | 9 |
|---|---|
 Alabama Crimson Tide | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Alabama about even · −9 LSU
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. LSU wins 1, Alabama wins 9.
- 1 LSU 13 ALA 8
- 2 LSU 7 ALA 10
- 3 LSU 13 ALA 20
- 4 LSU 3 ALA 13
- 5 LSU 10 ALA 24
- 6 LSU 0 ALA 16
- 7 LSU 7 ALA 27
- 8 LSU 0 ALA 23
- 9 LSU 7 ALA 34
- 10 LSU 0 ALA 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
LSU wins 9% of them, Alabama 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Alabama by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| LSU by 17+ | 0.5% |
| LSU by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| LSU by 1–8 | 5.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Alabama by 1–8 | 19.3% |
| Alabama by 9–16 | 21.2% |
| Alabama by 17+ | 49.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Ramos, 30 yds missed · 89% expected
- C. Talty, 45 yds made · 62% expected
- D. Ramos, 37 yds made · 79% expected
- C. Talty, 26 yds missed · 90% expected
- D. Ramos, 44 yds made · 67% expected
- D. Ramos, 37 yds made · 80% expected
- C. Talty, 44 yds made · 64% expected
Penalties: LSU 10 for 74 yards, Alabama 2 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:35 | False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ALA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:33 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards | +1% ALA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:38 | Pass Interference on LSU, 15 yards | 0% ALA +2.5 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ALA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 11:44 | Face Mask on Alabama, 15 yards | +3% LSU +2.2 pts |
| Q3 9:41 | Delay of Game on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ALA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 8:43 | Offside on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ALA +1.7 pts |
| Q3 3:11 | False Start on LSU, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% ALA +1.2 pts |
| Q4 13:04 | False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ALA +0.5 pts |
| Q4 12:24 | False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ALA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:53 | Personal Foul on LSU, 15 yards | +2% ALA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:11 | Illegal Block on Alabama, 10 yards | +1% LSU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Alabama’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:28 | Alabama converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +3% ALA | ALA: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 11:04 | Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +3% LSU | ALA: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 10:35 | Alabama was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedFalse Start on LSU, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% LSU | ALA: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 7:48 | LSU converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% LSU | LSU: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q1 4:49 | D. Ramos missed a 30-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +6% ALA | LSU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 2:28 | C. Talty missed a 26-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him | +4% LSU | ALA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 14:53 | Alabama fumbled and LSU recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% LSU | ALA: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 12:47 | LSU converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +6% LSU | LSU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
LSU 11% · Alabama 89%
- Final margin
- Alabama by 11
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for Alabama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Alabama by 9.5
- Replay with same day's form
- LSU 9% · Alabama 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
LSU · 
Alabama
More from Week 11 2025
- Texas A&M at Missouri TA&M 38–17 · replay 66% for the winner
- Auburn at Vanderbilt VAN 45–38 · replay 89% for the winner
- Florida at Kentucky UK 38–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Georgia at Mississippi State UGA 41–21 · replay 99% for the winner
- The Citadel at Ole Miss MISS 49–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner