luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025

Auburn at Vanderbilt, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

Vanderbilt beat Auburn 45–38, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Vanderbilt wins 9 of 10. Auburn had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 21 points of win probability to Auburn.

Before kickoff Vanderbilt was a 65% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:06 left): Vanderbilt was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 21 points of win probability to Auburn.

Final (OT)

Auburn Tigers 38
Vanderbilt Commodores 45

November 8, 2025 · FirstBank Stadium · Closing line: Vanderbilt −6

Luck index +11 Vanderbilt about even · −11 Auburn

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Auburn wins 1, Vanderbilt wins 9.

  1. 1 AUB 40 VAN 31
  2. 2 AUB 24 VAN 27
  3. 3 AUB 31 VAN 38
  4. 4 AUB 28 VAN 38
  5. 5 AUB 14 VAN 27
  6. 6 AUB 35 VAN 51
  7. 7 AUB 7 VAN 26
  8. 8 AUB 17 VAN 41
  9. 9 AUB 21 VAN 51
  10. 10 AUB 14 VAN 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Auburn wins 11% of them, Vanderbilt 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vanderbilt by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Auburn by 17+0.9%
Auburn by 9–162.0%
Auburn by 1–87.5%
Level after regulation0.9%
Vanderbilt by 1–814.0%
Vanderbilt by 9–1620.1%
Vanderbilt by 17+54.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.0 points to Auburn: the final margin was Vanderbilt by 7, without the luck Vanderbilt by 15.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • B. Taylor, 23 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. McPherson, 26 yds made · 93% expected
  • A. McPherson, 47 yds made · 62% expected
  • A. McPherson, 38 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Auburn 12 for 98 yards, Vanderbilt 3 for 21 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:26 Delay of Game on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% AUB +0.7 pts
Q1 8:47 Holding on Auburn, 10 yards +5% VAN +2.3 pts
Q2 2:54 False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% VAN +1.3 pts
Q2 0:39 Holding on Auburn, 10 yards, wiping out the play +17% VAN +5.9 pts
Q3 11:55 Pass Interference on Auburn, 8 yards +1% VAN +0.4 pts
Q3 11:51 False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% AUB +0.5 pts
Q3 11:24 False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% VAN +1.4 pts
Q3 6:44 Intentional Grounding on Auburn, 7 yards +1% VAN +0.4 pts
Q3 3:04 False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% VAN +0.4 pts
Q3 0:17 Pass Interference on Auburn, 8 yards +4% VAN +1.1 pts
Q4 11:54 Face Mask on Auburn, 15 yards +8% VAN +1.9 pts
Q4 6:49 False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% VAN +0.6 pts
Q4 1:51 Face Mask on Auburn, 15 yards 0% VAN +1.6 pts
Q4 0:48 False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% VAN +0.4 pts
Q4 0:13 Pass Interference on Vanderbilt, 11 yards +5% AUB +0.6 pts

When it happened

Vanderbilt’s chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Vanderbilt was ahead in it, below while Auburn was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:39 Holding on Auburn, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +17% VAN VAN: Touchdown
2 Q4 13:12 Auburn fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% AUB AUB: Punt
3 Q4 11:54 Face Mask on Auburn, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% VAN VAN: Touchdown
4 Q4 7:57 Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% VAN VAN: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 5:27 Auburn’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% AUB AUB: End of game
6 Q4 4:43 Vanderbilt was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 83% expected +9% AUB VAN: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 4:00 Vanderbilt converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expected +8% VAN VAN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:06 Vanderbilt was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expected +21% AUB –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Auburn 1% · Vanderbilt 99%

Final margin
Vanderbilt by 7
Luck in points
8.1 for Auburn
Luck-adjusted margin
Vanderbilt by 15.1
Replay with same day's form
Auburn 11% · Vanderbilt 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Auburn · Vanderbilt

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