luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025

The Citadel at Ole Miss, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

Ole Miss beat The Citadel 49–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ole Miss wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Ole Miss was a 100% favorite.

Final

The Citadel Bulldogs 0
Ole Miss Rebels 49

November 8, 2025 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Closing line: Ole Miss −51.5

Luck index 0 Ole Miss about even · 0 The Citadel

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. The Citadel wins 0, Ole Miss wins 10.

  1. 1 CIT 13 MISS 49
  2. 2 CIT 10 MISS 55
  3. 3 CIT 6 MISS 54
  4. 4 CIT 0 MISS 52
  5. 5 CIT 6 MISS 62
  6. 6 CIT 0 MISS 59
  7. 7 CIT 0 MISS 62
  8. 8 CIT 0 MISS 63
  9. 9 CIT 0 MISS 69
  10. 10 CIT 0 MISS 73

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

The Citadel wins 0% of them, Ole Miss 100%. The line is what actually happened: Ole Miss by 49.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
The Citadel by 17+0.0%
The Citadel by 9–160.0%
The Citadel by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Ole Miss by 1–80.5%
Ole Miss by 9–162.8%
Ole Miss by 17+96.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.4 points to Ole Miss: the final margin was Ole Miss by 49, without the luck Ole Miss by 42.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Weil, 46 yds missed · 60% expected
  • J. Weil, 32 yds missed · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: The Citadel 5 for 52 yards, Ole Miss 3 for 24 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:40 Face Mask on The Citadel, 12 yards 0% MISS +1.5 pts
Q2 12:10 Pass Interference on The Citadel, 15 yards 0% MISS +1.6 pts
Q2 11:56 Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards 0% CIT +1.2 pts
Q2 4:32 Delay of Game on The Citadel, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MISS +0.3 pts
Q2 1:01 Pass Interference on The Citadel, 15 yards 0% MISS +1.7 pts
Q3 6:35 Holding on Ole Miss, 9 yards, wiping out the play 0% CIT +2.3 pts
Q3 0:19 False Start on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIT +0.6 pts
Q4 9:34 Illegal Formation on The Citadel, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MISS +0.3 pts

When it happened

Ole Miss’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Ole Miss was ahead in it, below while The Citadel was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:23 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected +0% MISS MISS: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:07 The Citadel was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +0% MISS CIT: Punt
3 Q1 7:40 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +0% MISS MISS: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:34 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected +0% MISS MISS: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 5:00 The Citadel was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +0% MISS CIT: Punt
6 Q1 3:17 Ole Miss was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +0% MISS MISS: Turnover on downs
7 Q1 2:42 Ole Miss was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected +0% CIT MISS: Touchdown
8 Q4 9:34 Illegal Formation on The Citadel, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% MISS MISS: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

The Citadel 0% · Ole Miss 100%

Final margin
Ole Miss by 49
Luck in points
6.4 for Ole Miss
Luck-adjusted margin
Ole Miss by 42.6
Replay with same day's form
The Citadel 0% · Ole Miss 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · The Citadel · Ole Miss

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