Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Texas A&M at Missouri, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas A&M beat Missouri 38–17, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas A&M was a 68% favorite.
Final
 Texas A&M Aggies | 38 |
|---|---|
 Missouri Tigers | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Texas A&M lucky · −34 Missouri
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas A&M wins 7, Missouri wins 3.
- 1 TA&M 40 MIZ 10
- 2 TA&M 35 MIZ 14
- 3 TA&M 41 MIZ 26
- 4 TA&M 28 MIZ 17
- 5 TA&M 27 MIZ 19
- 6 TA&M 19 MIZ 14
- 7 TA&M 24 MIZ 21
- 8 TA&M 17 MIZ 20
- 9 TA&M 17 MIZ 24
- 10 TA&M 14 MIZ 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas A&M wins 66% of them, Missouri 34%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas A&M by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas A&M by 17+ | 23.5% |
| Texas A&M by 9–16 | 19.5% |
| Texas A&M by 1–8 | 21.1% |
| Level after regulation | 6.3% |
| Missouri by 1–8 | 15.0% |
| Missouri by 9–16 | 8.6% |
| Missouri by 17+ | 6.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Bond, 32 yds made · 86% expected
- O. Robbins, 49 yds made · 56% expected
Penalties: Texas A&M 7 for 60 yards, Missouri 4 for 38 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:03 | Pass Interference on Missouri, 11 yards | +5% TA&M +2.7 pts |
| Q1 8:01 | Unnecessary Roughness on Missouri, 15 yards | +3% TA&M +1.6 pts |
| Q1 0:04 | False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TA&M +0.9 pts |
| Q2 9:45 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +2% MIZ +1.2 pts |
| Q2 6:53 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +1% MIZ +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:47 | Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards | +1% MIZ +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:23 | Offside on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.4 pts |
| Q3 14:54 | Holding on Missouri, 7 yards | 0% TA&M +0.4 pts |
| Q3 8:32 | Offside on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIZ +1.1 pts |
| Q3 4:22 | Delay of Game on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIZ +0.4 pts |
| Q4 7:30 | Pass Interference on Texas A&M, 15 yards | 0% MIZ +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Missouri’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:03 | Pass Interference on Missouri, 11 yardsJudgment calls | +5% TA&M | TA&M: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:37 | Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% MIZ | TA&M: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 8:51 | Missouri was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% TA&M | MIZ: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 8:01 | Unnecessary Roughness on Missouri, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% TA&M | TA&M: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 1:16 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% TA&M | TA&M: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 13:48 | Missouri fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% MIZ | MIZ: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 5:09 | Missouri was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% TA&M | MIZ: Turnover |
| 8 | Q2 0:57 | Missouri fumbled and Texas A&M recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% TA&M | MIZ: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas A&M 100% · Missouri 0%
- Final margin
- Texas A&M by 21
- Luck in points
- 0.3 for Missouri
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas A&M by 21.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas A&M 66% · Missouri 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Texas A&M · 
Missouri
More from Week 11 2025
- Auburn at Vanderbilt VAN 45–38 · replay 89% for the winner
- LSU at Alabama ALA 20–9 · replay 91% for the winner
- Florida at Kentucky UK 38–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Georgia at Mississippi State UGA 41–21 · replay 99% for the winner
- The Citadel at Ole Miss MISS 49–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner