luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025

Georgia at Mississippi State, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

Georgia beat Mississippi State 41–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Georgia was a 73% favorite.

Final

Georgia Bulldogs 41
Mississippi State Bulldogs 21

November 8, 2025 · Davis Wade Stadium · Closing line: Georgia −9.5

Luck index +1 Georgia about even · −1 Mississippi State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Georgia wins 10, Mississippi State wins 0.

  1. 1 UGA 56 MSST 3
  2. 2 UGA 45 MSST 0
  3. 3 UGA 58 MSST 17
  4. 4 UGA 43 MSST 6
  5. 5 UGA 38 MSST 6
  6. 6 UGA 38 MSST 10
  7. 7 UGA 31 MSST 7
  8. 8 UGA 24 MSST 3
  9. 9 UGA 28 MSST 13
  10. 10 UGA 31 MSST 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Georgia wins 99% of them, Mississippi State 1%. The line is what actually happened: Georgia by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Georgia by 17+89.1%
Georgia by 9–166.9%
Georgia by 1–83.1%
Level after regulation0.4%
Mississippi State by 1–80.3%
Mississippi State by 9–160.1%
Mississippi State by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to Georgia: the final margin was Georgia by 20, without the luck Georgia by 18.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • P. Woodring, 49 yds made · 61% expected
  • P. Woodring, 46 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Georgia 6 for 50 yards, Mississippi State 5 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:41 False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UGA +0.8 pts
Q1 2:41 Holding on Georgia, 10 yards +3% MSST +1.6 pts
Q2 4:06 False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UGA +0.8 pts
Q2 2:05 False Start on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.2 pts
Q2 2:00 Targeting on Mississippi State, 15 yards +1% UGA +0.7 pts
Q2 1:52 Pass Interference on Mississippi State, 5 yards 0% UGA 0.0 pts
Q2 0:30 Offside on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UGA +1.3 pts
Q3 8:31 Pass Interference on Georgia, 15 yards 0% MSST +1.1 pts
Q3 2:06 Delay of Game on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.7 pts
Q4 13:45 Holding on Georgia, 10 yards 0% MSST +0.4 pts
Q4 11:07 Offside on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.8 pts

When it happened

Mississippi State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Mississippi State was ahead in it, below while Georgia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:24 Mississippi State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +5% MSST MSST: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:41 P. Woodring made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 10 of 14 from 45+ beforeFalse Start on Mississippi State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% UGA UGA: Turnover
3 Q1 3:15 Georgia fumbled and Mississippi State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% MSST UGA: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:41 Holding on Georgia, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% MSST MSST: Turnover
5 Q1 1:53 Mississippi State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% MSST MSST: Turnover
6 Q1 0:11 Mississippi State fumbled and Georgia recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% UGA MSST: Punt
7 Q2 14:42 Georgia converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% UGA UGA: Touchdown
8 Q2 12:18 Mississippi State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% UGA MSST: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Georgia 100% · Mississippi State 0%

Final margin
Georgia by 20
Luck in points
1.8 for Georgia
Luck-adjusted margin
Georgia by 18.2
Replay with same day's form
Georgia 99% · Mississippi State 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Georgia · Mississippi State

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