luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025

Indiana at Oregon, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

Indiana beat Oregon 30–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Indiana wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 14 points of win probability to Indiana.

Before kickoff Oregon was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:42 left): Return touchdown by Oregon, worth 29 points of win probability to Oregon.

Final

Indiana Hoosiers 30
Oregon Ducks 20

October 11, 2025 · Autzen Stadium · Closing line: Oregon −7

Luck index +45 Indiana lucky · −45 Oregon

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Indiana wins 5, Oregon wins 5.

  1. 1 IU 24 ORE 0
  2. 2 IU 26 ORE 10
  3. 3 IU 24 ORE 14
  4. 4 IU 19 ORE 13
  5. 5 IU 17 ORE 14
  6. 6 IU 21 ORE 23
  7. 7 IU 17 ORE 23
  8. 8 IU 10 ORE 19
  9. 9 IU 12 ORE 27
  10. 10 IU 3 ORE 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Indiana wins 55% of them, Oregon 45%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Indiana by 17+15.8%
Indiana by 9–1617.5%
Indiana by 1–820.4%
Level after regulation2.5%
Oregon by 1–823.5%
Oregon by 9–1611.3%
Oregon by 17+9.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.3 points to Indiana: the final margin was Indiana by 10, without the luck Indiana by 5.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Radicic, 42 yds made · 70% expected
  • A. Sappington, 40 yds made · 73% expected
  • A. Sappington, 36 yds missed · 80% expected
  • B. Franke, 58 yds made · 41% expected
  • A. Sappington, 33 yds made · 84% expected
  • B. Franke, 22 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Indiana 8 for 45 yards, Oregon 6 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:46 False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ORE +0.5 pts
Q1 7:05 False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ORE +1.9 pts
Q1 6:05 Delay of Game on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ORE +0.4 pts
Q2 12:33 Holding on Oregon, 10 yards +2% IU +0.9 pts
Q2 11:19 Holding on Indiana, 10 yards +5% ORE +2.2 pts
Q2 8:12 False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ORE +1.1 pts
Q2 1:38 Illegal Snap on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IU +0.3 pts
Q2 0:06 Pass Interference on Oregon, 15 yards 0% IU +0.3 pts
Q3 6:29 Pass Interference on Oregon, 11 yards +6% IU +1.8 pts
Q3 2:19 Pass Interference on Oregon, 8 yards +5% IU +1.5 pts
Q4 10:13 Offside on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% IU +1.4 pts
Q4 8:58 False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% ORE +1.4 pts
Q4 7:28 False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ORE +0.6 pts
Q4 6:03 False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ORE +0.5 pts

When it happened

Oregon’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Oregon was ahead in it, below while Indiana was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:09 Oregon was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +7% IU ORE: Punt
2 Q2 0:24 A. Sappington missed a 36-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +7% IU ORE: Punt
3 Q3 8:58 Oregon converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +13% ORE ORE: Field goal
4 Q4 12:42 Return touchdown by OregonSpecial teams +29% ORE ORE: Turnover
5 Q4 10:13 Offside on Oregon, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% IU IU: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:58 False Start on Indiana, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% ORE ORE: Turnover
7 Q4 8:43 Indiana converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +11% IU IU: Touchdown
8 Q4 6:23 Indiana converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +14% IU IU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Indiana 78% · Oregon 22%

Final margin
Indiana by 10
Luck in points
4.3 for Indiana
Luck-adjusted margin
Indiana by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Indiana 55% · Oregon 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Indiana · Oregon

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