luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025

Michigan at USC, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

USC beat Michigan 31–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, USC wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff USC was a 58% favorite.

Final

Michigan Wolverines 13
USC Trojans 31

October 11, 2025 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Closing line: USC −3

Luck index +15 USC about even · −15 Michigan

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Michigan wins 1, USC wins 9.

  1. 1 MICH 24 USC 17
  2. 2 MICH 21 USC 24
  3. 3 MICH 17 USC 24
  4. 4 MICH 21 USC 31
  5. 5 MICH 14 USC 28
  6. 6 MICH 6 USC 23
  7. 7 MICH 14 USC 35
  8. 8 MICH 10 USC 34
  9. 9 MICH 10 USC 38
  10. 10 MICH 14 USC 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Michigan wins 15% of them, USC 85%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: USC by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Michigan by 17+1.4%
Michigan by 9–164.3%
Michigan by 1–88.5%
Level after regulation0.6%
USC by 1–818.5%
USC by 9–1619.8%
USC by 17+46.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to USC: the final margin was USC by 18, without the luck USC by 12.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Michigan 3 for 22 yards, USC 2 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 13:11 False Start on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% USC +0.7 pts
Q2 5:20 False Start on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USC +0.5 pts
Q3 14:19 Pass Interference on Michigan, 12 yards, wiping out the play +5% USC +2.2 pts
Q3 12:19 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on USC, 15 yards +2% MICH +0.9 pts
Q4 11:03 Holding on USC, 10 yards 0% MICH +1.2 pts

When it happened

USC’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while USC was ahead in it, below while Michigan was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:57 USC converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +2% USC USC: Turnover
2 Q1 8:04 Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +2% USC MICH: Punt
3 Q2 12:42 Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +2% USC MICH: Punt
4 Q2 7:48 Michigan converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +2% MICH MICH: Touchdown
5 Q2 6:49 Michigan converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% MICH MICH: Touchdown
6 Q3 14:19 Pass Interference on Michigan, 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% USC USC: Touchdown
7 Q3 12:19 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on USC, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% MICH MICH: Punt
8 Q3 12:00 USC converted 3rd & 263rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +7% USC USC: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Michigan 1% · USC 99%

Final margin
USC by 18
Luck in points
5.2 for USC
Luck-adjusted margin
USC by 12.8
Replay with same day's form
Michigan 15% · USC 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Michigan · USC

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