luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025

Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

Eastern Michigan beat Northern Illinois 16–10, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Eastern Michigan wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 17 points of win probability to Eastern Michigan.

Before kickoff Northern Illinois was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:12 left): Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 9, worth 10 points of win probability to Eastern Michigan.

Final

Northern Illinois Huskies 10
Eastern Michigan Eagles 16

October 11, 2025 · Rynearson Stadium · Closing line: Northern Illinois −1.5

Luck index +53 Eastern Michigan lucky · −53 Northern Illinois

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Northern Illinois wins 5, Eastern Michigan wins 5.

  1. 1 NIU 34 EMU 10
  2. 2 NIU 27 EMU 10
  3. 3 NIU 21 EMU 10
  4. 4 NIU 34 EMU 28
  5. 5 NIU 10 EMU 7
  6. 6 NIU 14 EMU 16
  7. 7 NIU 7 EMU 10
  8. 8 NIU 10 EMU 17
  9. 9 NIU 24 EMU 34
  10. 10 NIU 3 EMU 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Northern Illinois wins 53% of them, Eastern Michigan 47%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eastern Michigan by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Northern Illinois by 17+12.0%
Northern Illinois by 9–1618.9%
Northern Illinois by 1–820.5%
Level after regulation2.4%
Eastern Michigan by 1–826.2%
Eastern Michigan by 9–1611.8%
Eastern Michigan by 17+8.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.4 points to Eastern Michigan: the final margin was Eastern Michigan by 6, without the luck Northern Illinois by 2.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • R. Kessinger, 35 yds made · 81% expected
  • A. Glass, 30 yds made · 87% expected
  • A. Glass, 40 yds missed · 73% expected
  • R. Kessinger, 49 yds made · 57% expected
  • R. Kessinger, 28 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Northern Illinois 1 for 11 yards, Eastern Michigan 6 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:45 Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards +3% NIU +1.5 pts
Q2 0:01 Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% NIU +2.4 pts
Q3 10:26 Ineligible Downfield on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards +2% NIU +0.9 pts
Q3 9:56 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Northern Illinois, 11 yards +9% NIU +3.0 pts
Q4 11:51 False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NIU +0.7 pts
Q4 6:49 False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NIU +0.5 pts
Q4 1:51 Delay of Game on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NIU +1.0 pts

When it happened

Eastern Michigan’s chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Eastern Michigan was ahead in it, below while Northern Illinois was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:36 Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% EMU EMU: Field goal
2 Q2 0:01 Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% NIU NIU: End of half
3 Q3 11:14 Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% EMU EMU: End of half
4 Q3 9:56 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Northern Illinois, 11 yardsJudgment calls +9% NIU EMU: Punt
5 Q3 2:12 Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% EMU EMU: Punt
6 Q4 14:51 Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% NIU NIU: Punt
7 Q4 10:13 Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% EMU EMU: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:04 Northern Illinois converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% NIU NIU: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Northern Illinois 64% · Eastern Michigan 36%

Final margin
Eastern Michigan by 6
Luck in points
8.4 for Eastern Michigan
Luck-adjusted margin
Northern Illinois by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Northern Illinois 53% · Eastern Michigan 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Northern Illinois · Eastern Michigan

More from Week 7 2025

Every week 7 game, 2025