Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Miami (OH) at Akron, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Miami (OH) beat Akron 20–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Miami (OH) wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Miami (OH) was a 77% favorite.
Final
 Miami (OH) RedHawks | 20 |
|---|---|
 Akron Zips | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Miami (OH) about even · −20 Akron
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Miami (OH) wins 8, Akron wins 2.
- 1 M-OH 44 AKR 14
- 2 M-OH 23 AKR 0
- 3 M-OH 26 AKR 7
- 4 M-OH 28 AKR 13
- 5 M-OH 24 AKR 12
- 6 M-OH 16 AKR 7
- 7 M-OH 13 AKR 7
- 8 M-OH 13 AKR 10
- 9 M-OH 17 AKR 20
- 10 M-OH 6 AKR 16
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Miami (OH) wins 80% of them, Akron 20%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Miami (OH) by 13.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Miami (OH) by 17+ | 30.1% |
| Miami (OH) by 9–16 | 24.4% |
| Miami (OH) by 1–8 | 21.1% |
| Level after regulation | 5.4% |
| Akron by 1–8 | 12.4% |
| Akron by 9–16 | 4.7% |
| Akron by 17+ | 1.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- O. Wiley, 38 yds missed · 72% expected
- D. Dzioban, 41 yds made · 73% expected
- D. Dzioban, 46 yds made · 64% expected
Penalties: Miami (OH) 4 for 30 yards, Akron 9 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:00 | False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% M-OH +0.7 pts |
| Q1 13:30 | False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% M-OH +0.7 pts |
| Q1 9:58 | False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% M-OH +0.8 pts |
| Q1 6:23 | Offside on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% M-OH +3.3 pts |
| Q1 4:43 | Intentional Grounding on Miami (OH), 10 yards | +3% AKR +1.9 pts |
| Q1 1:01 | False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% M-OH +0.7 pts |
| Q2 6:55 | Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% AKR +2.3 pts |
| Q2 5:54 | Pass Interference on Akron, 15 yards | +3% M-OH +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:27 | Personal Foul on Miami (OH), 5 yards | +1% AKR +0.3 pts |
| Q3 9:49 | False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% M-OH +1.0 pts |
| Q3 7:39 | False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% M-OH +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:17 | Delay of Game on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AKR +0.4 pts |
| Q4 8:55 | False Start on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% M-OH +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Akron’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:43 | Akron converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +5% AKR | AKR: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 6:23 | Offside on Akron, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% M-OH | M-OH: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 14:19 | Akron converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +5% AKR | AKR: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q2 10:21 | O. Wiley missed a 38-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him | +5% M-OH | AKR: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 6:55 | Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% AKR | AKR: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 5:54 | Pass Interference on Akron, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% M-OH | M-OH: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 1:33 | D. Dzioban made a 41-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him | +4% AKR | M-OH: Turnover |
| 8 | Q2 0:39 | Akron was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +4% M-OH | AKR: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Miami (OH) 70% · Akron 30%
- Final margin
- Miami (OH) by 13
- Luck in points
- 9.6 for Miami (OH)
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami (OH) by 3.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Miami (OH) 80% · Akron 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Miami (OH) · 
Akron
More from Week 7 2025
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan EMU 16–10 · replay 47% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Kent State KENT 42–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Ball State at Western Michigan WMU 42–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Troy at Texas State TROY 48–41 · replay 31% for the winner
- Missouri State at Middle Tennessee MOST 22–20 · replay 40% for the winner