Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Ball State at Western Michigan, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Western Michigan beat Ball State 42–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Western Michigan wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Western Michigan was a 73% favorite.
Final
 Ball State Cardinals | 0 |
|---|---|
 Western Michigan Broncos | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Western Michigan about even · 0 Ball State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ball State wins 0, Western Michigan wins 10.
- 1 BALL 0 WMU 24
- 2 BALL 0 WMU 31
- 3 BALL 0 WMU 35
- 4 BALL 0 WMU 38
- 5 BALL 10 WMU 52
- 6 BALL 0 WMU 44
- 7 BALL 0 WMU 47
- 8 BALL 0 WMU 52
- 9 BALL 7 WMU 63
- 10 BALL 0 WMU 62
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ball State wins 0% of them, Western Michigan 100%. The line is what actually happened: Western Michigan by 42.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ball State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Ball State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Ball State by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Western Michigan by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Western Michigan by 9–16 | 1.0% |
| Western Michigan by 17+ | 98.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Ball State 4 for 37 yards, Western Michigan 4 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:54 | Holding on Ball State, 16 yards | +2% WMU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 4:56 | Illegal Formation on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WMU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 0:26 | Offside on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% BALL +2.6 pts |
| Q2 10:49 | Personal Foul on Ball State, 15 yards | 0% WMU 0.0 pts |
| Q2 1:14 | Delay of Game on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BALL +0.2 pts |
| Q3 14:53 | False Start on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WMU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 10:44 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Western Michigan, 0 yards | 0% BALL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:42 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Ball State, 1 yard | 0% WMU +1.4 pts |
When it happened
Western Michigan’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:55 | Ball State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +2% WMU | BALL: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:55 | Western Michigan converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +2% WMU | WMU: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 8:55 | Western Michigan was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +4% BALL | WMU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 4:56 | Illegal Formation on Ball State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% WMU | WMU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 3:52 | Ball State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +2% WMU | BALL: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q1 3:18 | Ball State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +5% WMU | BALL: Turnover |
| 7 | Q1 1:02 | Ball State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +3% WMU | BALL: Turnover |
| 8 | Q1 0:26 | Offside on Western Michigan, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% BALL | BALL: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ball State 0% · Western Michigan 100%
- Final margin
- Western Michigan by 42
- Luck in points
- 9.4 for Western Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Western Michigan by 32.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Ball State 0% · Western Michigan 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Ball State · 
Western Michigan
More from Week 7 2025
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan EMU 16–10 · replay 47% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Akron M-OH 20–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Kent State KENT 42–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Troy at Texas State TROY 48–41 · replay 31% for the winner
- Missouri State at Middle Tennessee MOST 22–20 · replay 40% for the winner