Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 38 of the 48 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Massachusetts at Kent State, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Kent State beat Massachusetts 42–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kent State wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Massachusetts: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Kent State it would win 35% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%. The numbers
Before kickoff Kent State was a 54% favorite.
Final
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 6 |
|---|---|
 Kent State Golden Flashes | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Kent State about even · 0 Massachusetts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Massachusetts wins 0, Kent State wins 10.
- 1 MASS 14 KENT 27
- 2 MASS 14 KENT 35
- 3 MASS 10 KENT 37
- 4 MASS 0 KENT 31
- 5 MASS 0 KENT 33
- 6 MASS 7 KENT 42
- 7 MASS 0 KENT 39
- 8 MASS 3 KENT 45
- 9 MASS 0 KENT 48
- 10 MASS 0 KENT 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Massachusetts
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Kent State it would win 35% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
34 points apart for Massachusetts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts offenseEPA per play gained | −0.15 | +0.02 | worse by 0.17 |
| Massachusetts defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.30 | +0.07 | worse by 0.23 |
| Kent State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.30 | +0.04 | better by 0.26 |
| Kent State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.15 | +0.12 | better by 0.27 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Massachusetts wins 0% of them, Kent State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Kent State by 36.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Massachusetts by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Kent State by 1–8 | 1.3% |
| Kent State by 9–16 | 3.8% |
| Kent State by 17+ | 94.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Massachusetts 11 for 83 yards, Kent State 3 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 15:00 | Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yards | +1% KENT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:39 | Face Mask on Massachusetts, 15 yards | +2% KENT +1.6 pts |
| Q2 11:47 | Illegal Motion on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KENT +0.3 pts |
| Q2 10:18 | Offside on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KENT +0.3 pts |
| Q2 7:39 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 11 yards | +2% KENT +1.4 pts |
| Q2 5:46 | Offside on Massachusetts, 0 yards · pre-snap | +1% MASS +0.5 pts |
| Q3 11:50 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KENT +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:55 | Roughing the Passer on Massachusetts, 15 yards | +1% KENT +1.6 pts |
| Q3 8:50 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Massachusetts, 12 yards | 0% KENT +0.7 pts |
| Q3 7:00 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 0 yards | 0% KENT +0.7 pts |
| Q3 5:37 | Delay of Game on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:07 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KENT +0.7 pts |
| Q3 2:27 | Pass Interference on Kent State, 10 yards | 0% MASS +1.3 pts |
| Q4 6:14 | False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Kent State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:34 | Massachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +3% KENT | MASS: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:03 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +5% MASS | MASS: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 2:49 | Kent State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +3% MASS | KENT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 2:00 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% MASS | MASS: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 1:15 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% MASS | MASS: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 14:39 | Face Mask on Massachusetts, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% KENT | KENT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 7:39 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 11 yardsJudgment calls | +2% KENT | KENT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 9:47 | Kent State converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +3% KENT | KENT: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Massachusetts 0% · Kent State 100%
- Final margin
- Kent State by 36
- Luck in points
- 5.2 for Kent State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kent State by 30.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Massachusetts 0% · Kent State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 38 of the 48 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Massachusetts · 
Kent State
More from Week 7 2025
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan EMU 16–10 · replay 47% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Akron M-OH 20–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Ball State at Western Michigan WMU 42–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Troy at Texas State TROY 48–41 · replay 31% for the winner
- Missouri State at Middle Tennessee MOST 22–20 · replay 40% for the winner