luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025

Utah State at Hawai'i, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

Hawai'i beat Utah State 44–26, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff Utah State was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:59 left): Utah State fumbled and recovered it, worth 9 points of win probability to Utah State.

Final

Utah State Aggies 26
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 44

October 11, 2025 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Closing line: Utah State −1.5

Luck index +25 Hawai'i lucky · −25 Utah State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Utah State wins 3, Hawai'i wins 7.

  1. 1 USU 33 HAW 10
  2. 2 USU 24 HAW 13
  3. 3 USU 31 HAW 27
  4. 4 USU 28 HAW 30
  5. 5 USU 24 HAW 31
  6. 6 USU 30 HAW 41
  7. 7 USU 33 HAW 48
  8. 8 USU 24 HAW 44
  9. 9 USU 17 HAW 42
  10. 10 USU 17 HAW 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Utah State wins 25% of them, Hawai'i 75%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Hawai'i by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Utah State by 17+6.0%
Utah State by 9–167.1%
Utah State by 1–811.4%
Level after regulation2.5%
Hawai'i by 1–819.8%
Hawai'i by 9–1616.1%
Hawai'i by 17+37.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to Hawai'i: the final margin was Hawai'i by 18, without the luck Hawai'i by 16.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • K. Matsuzawa, 31 yds made · 88% expected
  • T. Rinker, 20 yds made · 95% expected
  • T. Rinker, 40 yds made · 73% expected
  • K. Matsuzawa, 46 yds made · 64% expected
  • K. Matsuzawa, 36 yds made · 82% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Utah State 10 for 58 yards, Hawai'i 4 for 29 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:51 Holding on Utah State, 10 yards +3% HAW +1.3 pts
Q1 7:10 Pass Interference on Hawai'i, 15 yards +3% USU +1.3 pts
Q1 6:01 Personal Foul on Hawai'i, 4 yards +3% USU +1.5 pts
Q1 2:14 Holding on Utah State, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% HAW +1.3 pts
Q1 1:57 Holding on Utah State, 2 yards, wiping out the play +3% HAW +1.2 pts
Q1 1:45 False Start on Utah State, 2 yards · pre-snap 0% HAW +0.2 pts
Q2 14:13 False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USU +0.7 pts
Q2 13:41 False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HAW +0.6 pts
Q2 10:58 Illegal Substitution on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% USU +0.9 pts
Q2 4:32 False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HAW +0.7 pts
Q2 0:18 Delay of Game on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USU +0.2 pts
Q2 0:03 Holding on Utah State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% HAW +1.6 pts
Q3 10:34 Offside on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HAW +0.6 pts
Q3 8:42 Holding on Utah State, 9 yards +5% HAW +1.7 pts

When it happened

Hawai'i’s chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Hawai'i was ahead in it, below while Utah State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:45 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% HAW HAW: Punt
2 Q2 1:59 Utah State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedUtah State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% USU USU: Field goal
3 Q3 9:14 Utah State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% USU USU: Punt
4 Q3 8:42 Holding on Utah State, 9 yardsJudgment calls +5% HAW HAW: Field goal
5 Q3 3:24 Hawai'i was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% USU HAW: Field goal
6 Q4 14:48 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +8% HAW HAW: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:40 Utah State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% HAW USU: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 10:36 Utah State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% HAW USU: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Utah State 1% · Hawai'i 99%

Final margin
Hawai'i by 18
Luck in points
1.8 for Hawai'i
Luck-adjusted margin
Hawai'i by 16.2
Replay with same day's form
Utah State 25% · Hawai'i 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Utah State · Hawai'i

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