luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025

Air Force at UNLV, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

UNLV beat Air Force 51–48, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10. Air Force had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 14 points of win probability to Air Force.

Before kickoff UNLV was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:32 left): Air Force converted 4th & 5, worth 22 points of win probability to Air Force.

Final

Air Force Falcons 48
UNLV Rebels 51

October 11, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: UNLV −7

Luck index +38 UNLV lucky · −38 Air Force

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Air Force wins 4, UNLV wins 6.

  1. 1 AF 56 UNLV 31
  2. 2 AF 45 UNLV 31
  3. 3 AF 52 UNLV 45
  4. 4 AF 45 UNLV 42
  5. 5 AF 42 UNLV 44
  6. 6 AF 28 UNLV 33
  7. 7 AF 35 UNLV 43
  8. 8 AF 42 UNLV 55
  9. 9 AF 21 UNLV 41
  10. 10 AF 24 UNLV 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Air Force wins 38% of them, UNLV 62%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UNLV by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Air Force by 17+9.9%
Air Force by 9–169.3%
Air Force by 1–816.4%
Level after regulation3.8%
UNLV by 1–820.6%
UNLV by 9–1616.3%
UNLV by 17+23.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to UNLV: the final margin was UNLV by 3, without the luck UNLV by 1.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • R. Villela, 45 yds made · 62% expected
  • R. Villela, 32 yds made · 84% expected
  • R. Villela, 20 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Medina, 40 yds missed · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Air Force 7 for 71 yards, UNLV 7 for 59 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:27 Face Mask on UNLV, 16 yards +4% AF +1.9 pts
Q1 9:08 False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% AF +0.9 pts
Q1 1:54 Unnecessary Roughness on UNLV, 6 yards +4% AF +2.2 pts
Q2 12:07 False Start on Air Force, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% UNLV +1.6 pts
Q2 8:56 Holding on UNLV, 10 yards +2% AF +0.8 pts
Q3 14:49 False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% AF +0.5 pts
Q3 14:15 Chop Block on Air Force, 15 yards +8% UNLV +2.8 pts
Q3 10:02 Penalty on Air Force, 15 yards +5% UNLV +1.6 pts
Q3 7:12 Penalty on Air Force, 4 yards +3% UNLV +1.0 pts
Q4 11:29 Pass Interference on Air Force, 11 yards +7% UNLV +1.7 pts
Q4 5:29 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Air Force, 16 yards +10% UNLV +1.6 pts
Q4 5:21 Holding on UNLV, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% AF +1.6 pts
Q4 1:20 Face Mask on UNLV, 7 yards +21% AF +2.4 pts
Q4 1:20 False Start on Air Force, 5 yards · pre-snap +9% UNLV +1.0 pts

When it happened

UNLV’s chance of winning

As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UNLV was ahead in it, below while Air Force was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 7:35 UNLV was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +8% AF UNLV: Field goal
2 Q3 14:15 Chop Block on Air Force, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% UNLV UNLV: Touchdown
3 Q4 12:12 UNLV converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +10% UNLV UNLV: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:29 Pass Interference on Air Force, 11 yardsJudgment calls +7% UNLV UNLV: Touchdown
5 Q4 5:29 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Air Force, 16 yardsJudgment calls +10% UNLV UNLV: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:21 Holding on UNLV, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% AF AF: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:32 Air Force converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +22% AF AF: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:20 Face Mask on UNLV, 7 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Air Force, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +13% AF AF: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Air Force 38% · UNLV 62%

Final margin
UNLV by 3
Luck in points
1.1 for UNLV
Luck-adjusted margin
UNLV by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Air Force 38% · UNLV 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Air Force · UNLV

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