Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
New Mexico at Boise State, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Boise State beat New Mexico 41–25, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Boise State wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Boise State was an 83% favorite.
Final
 New Mexico Lobos | 25 |
|---|---|
 Boise State Broncos | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Boise State about even · −11 New Mexico
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. New Mexico wins 1, Boise State wins 9.
- 1 UNM 13 BOIS 7
- 2 UNM 4 BOIS 7
- 3 UNM 3 BOIS 9
- 4 UNM 9 BOIS 17
- 5 UNM 10 BOIS 22
- 6 UNM 10 BOIS 24
- 7 UNM 0 BOIS 17
- 8 UNM 21 BOIS 41
- 9 UNM 0 BOIS 24
- 10 UNM 3 BOIS 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
New Mexico wins 11% of them, Boise State 89%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Boise State by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| New Mexico by 17+ | 0.8% |
| New Mexico by 9–16 | 2.8% |
| New Mexico by 1–8 | 7.3% |
| Level after regulation | 3.4% |
| Boise State by 1–8 | 21.0% |
| Boise State by 9–16 | 22.7% |
| Boise State by 17+ | 42.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Boomer, 24 yds made · 91% expected
- C. Boomer, 50 yds made · 54% expected
- L. Drzewiecki, 29 yds made · 86% expected
Penalties: New Mexico 8 for 69 yards, Boise State 6 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Delay of Game on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BOIS +0.8 pts |
| Q1 9:02 | Face Mask on New Mexico, 15 yards | +2% BOIS +1.6 pts |
| Q1 1:26 | Face Mask on New Mexico, 10 yards | +1% BOIS +1.3 pts |
| Q2 12:46 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Boise State, 15 yards | +8% UNM +4.0 pts |
| Q2 8:09 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards | +5% BOIS +2.3 pts |
| Q2 4:11 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNM +0.5 pts |
| Q2 3:11 | Illegal Block on New Mexico, 9 yards | +2% BOIS +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:22 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNM +0.3 pts |
| Q3 9:45 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNM +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:35 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNM +0.5 pts |
| Q3 6:39 | False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BOIS +0.9 pts |
| Q3 2:45 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNM +0.5 pts |
| Q4 7:31 | Delay of Game on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNM +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:40 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards | 0% BOIS +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Boise State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:46 | New Mexico was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Boise State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% UNM | UNM: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 8:09 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 3:20 | Boise State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +8% UNM | BOIS: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 9:22 | C. Boomer made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before | +4% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 7:54 | New Mexico converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +5% UNM | UNM: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 6:15 | New Mexico converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% UNM | UNM: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 1:31 | Boise State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +3% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 13:33 | New Mexico converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +4% UNM | UNM: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
New Mexico 4% · Boise State 96%
- Final margin
- Boise State by 16
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for Boise State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Boise State by 12.3
- Replay with same day's form
- New Mexico 11% · Boise State 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
New Mexico · 
Boise State
More from Week 7 2025
- Air Force at UNLV UNLV 51–48 · replay 62% for the winner
- Utah State at Hawai'i HAW 44–26 · replay 75% for the winner
- Fresno State at Colorado State CSU 49–21 · replay 81% for the winner
- San José State at Wyoming WYO 35–28 · replay 87% for the winner
- San Diego State at Nevada SDSU 44–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner