Week 10 2025 · October 31, 2025
North Carolina at Syracuse, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
North Carolina beat Syracuse 27–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, North Carolina wins 9 of 10.
An off day for Syracuse: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against North Carolina it would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers
Before kickoff Syracuse was a 54% favorite.
Final
 North Carolina Tar Heels | 27 |
|---|---|
 Syracuse Orange | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 North Carolina about even · −6 Syracuse
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. North Carolina wins 9, Syracuse wins 1.
- 1 UNC 38 SYR 0
- 2 UNC 31 SYR 0
- 3 UNC 27 SYR 0
- 4 UNC 26 SYR 3
- 5 UNC 27 SYR 7
- 6 UNC 20 SYR 3
- 7 UNC 21 SYR 7
- 8 UNC 26 SYR 17
- 9 UNC 17 SYR 14
- 10 UNC 6 SYR 13
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Syracuse
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against North Carolina it would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
36 points apart for Syracuse: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina offenseEPA per play gained | +0.20 | +0.07 | better by 0.14 |
| North Carolina defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.31 | +0.06 | better by 0.37 |
| Syracuse offenseEPA per play gained | −0.31 | +0.10 | worse by 0.41 |
| Syracuse defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.20 | +0.12 | worse by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
North Carolina wins 94% of them, Syracuse 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: North Carolina by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| North Carolina by 17+ | 64.1% |
| North Carolina by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| North Carolina by 1–8 | 10.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Syracuse by 1–8 | 3.5% |
| Syracuse by 9–16 | 0.7% |
| Syracuse by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Verhoff, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- T. Woody, 31 yds made · 86% expected
- R. Verhoff, 43 yds made · 68% expected
Penalties: North Carolina 5 for 34 yards, Syracuse 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:01 | False Start on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +1.3 pts |
| Q2 13:00 | Personal Foul on North Carolina, 8 yards | +4% SYR +1.6 pts |
| Q2 12:26 | Delay of Game on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNC +0.5 pts |
| Q2 9:26 | Delay of Game on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SYR +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:55 | Offside on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNC +0.1 pts |
| Q3 7:44 | Delay of Game on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNC +0.5 pts |
| Q3 4:38 | Personal Foul on Syracuse, 15 yards | +2% UNC +1.6 pts |
| Q4 10:05 | Pass Interference on North Carolina, 11 yards | 0% SYR +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Syracuse’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:34 | North Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +4% SYR | UNC: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 4:38 | North Carolina fumbled and Syracuse recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by SyracuseSpecial teams | +8% SYR | UNC: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 3:09 | North Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +3% SYR | UNC: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 14:17 | Syracuse fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% SYR | SYR: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 13:00 | Personal Foul on North Carolina, 8 yardsJudgment calls | +4% SYR | SYR: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 12:17 | T. Woody made a 31-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him | +6% SYR | SYR: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 13:46 | Syracuse was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +5% UNC | SYR: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 10:44 | Syracuse converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +3% SYR | SYR: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
North Carolina 99% · Syracuse 1%
- Final margin
- North Carolina by 17
- Luck in points
- 2.1 for North Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- North Carolina by 14.9
- Replay with same day's form
- North Carolina 94% · Syracuse 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
North Carolina · 
Syracuse
More from Week 10 2025
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Virginia at California UVA 31–21 · replay 54% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Stanford PITT 35–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Louisville at Virginia Tech LOU 28–16 · replay 95% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Boston College ND 25–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Florida State FSU 42–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner