Week 1 2025 · August 28, 2025
Stony Brook at San Diego State, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
San Diego State beat Stony Brook 42–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, San Diego State wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Stony Brook: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against San Diego State it would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%. The numbers
Before kickoff Stony Brook was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:53 left): Ineligible Downfield on San Diego State, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to Stony Brook.
Final
 Stony Brook Seawolves | 0 |
|---|---|
 San Diego State Aztecs | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 San Diego State about even · 0 Stony Brook
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stony Brook wins 0, San Diego State wins 10.
- 1 STBK 7 SDSU 17
- 2 STBK 6 SDSU 23
- 3 STBK 10 SDSU 31
- 4 STBK 6 SDSU 30
- 5 STBK 0 SDSU 27
- 6 STBK 7 SDSU 37
- 7 STBK 0 SDSU 33
- 8 STBK 0 SDSU 36
- 9 STBK 3 SDSU 43
- 10 STBK 3 SDSU 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Stony Brook
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against San Diego State it would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
51 points apart for Stony Brook: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Brook offenseEPA per play gained | −0.26 | +0.10 | worse by 0.36 |
| Stony Brook defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.08 | worse by 0.01 |
| San Diego State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.02 | better by 0.07 |
| San Diego State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.26 | +0.11 | better by 0.38 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Stony Brook wins 0% of them, San Diego State 100%. The line is what actually happened: San Diego State by 42.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stony Brook by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Stony Brook by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Stony Brook by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| San Diego State by 1–8 | 1.2% |
| San Diego State by 9–16 | 4.6% |
| San Diego State by 17+ | 94.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Plascencia, 42 yds made · 71% expected
- G. Plascencia, 35 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Stony Brook 5 for 44 yards, San Diego State 7 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:30 | False Start on Stony Brook, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SDSU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 5:11 | False Start on Stony Brook, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SDSU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:45 | False Start on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% STBK +0.8 pts |
| Q1 0:53 | Ineligible Downfield on San Diego State, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +10% STBK +4.5 pts |
| Q2 8:31 | Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards | +3% STBK +2.0 pts |
| Q3 14:54 | Holding on Stony Brook, 8 yards | 0% SDSU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 1:40 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on San Diego State, 15 yards | 0% SDSU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 1:08 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on San Diego State, 15 yards | 0% STBK +3.0 pts |
| Q4 14:33 | False Start on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STBK +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:41 | Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards | 0% STBK +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:05 | Intentional Grounding on Stony Brook, 11 yards | 0% SDSU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 5:05 | Pass Interference on Stony Brook, 15 yards | 0% SDSU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
San Diego State’s chance of winning
As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:39 | San Diego State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedSan Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedSan Diego State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedSan Diego State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +5% STBK | SDSU: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 1:48 | Stony Brook was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% SDSU | STBK: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:14 | San Diego State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedSan Diego State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +6% SDSU | SDSU: End of half |
| 4 | Q1 1:08 | San Diego State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% SDSU | SDSU: End of half |
| 5 | Q1 0:53 | Stony Brook was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedIneligible Downfield on San Diego State, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% STBK | STBK: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 13:37 | Stony Brook was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedStony Brook converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedStony Brook was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +3% SDSU | STBK: End of half |
| 7 | Q2 12:32 | Stony Brook converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedStony Brook was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +3% SDSU | STBK: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 5:51 | San Diego State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedSan Diego State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expectedSan Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +3% SDSU | SDSU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stony Brook 0% · San Diego State 100%
- Final margin
- San Diego State by 42
- Luck in points
- 14.3 for San Diego State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- San Diego State by 27.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Stony Brook 0% · San Diego State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Stony Brook · 
San Diego State
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