Week 7 2025 · October 9, 2025
Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Kennesaw State beat Louisiana Tech 35–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kennesaw State wins 9 of 10.
An off day for Louisiana Tech: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Kennesaw State it would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers
Before kickoff Louisiana Tech was a 61% favorite.
Final
 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 7 |
|---|---|
 Kennesaw State Owls | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Kennesaw State about even · −8 Louisiana Tech
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Louisiana Tech wins 1, Kennesaw State wins 9.
- 1 LT 10 KENN 6
- 2 LT 20 KENN 24
- 3 LT 14 KENN 21
- 4 LT 14 KENN 24
- 5 LT 20 KENN 34
- 6 LT 14 KENN 31
- 7 LT 17 KENN 38
- 8 LT 17 KENN 41
- 9 LT 7 KENN 38
- 10 LT 0 KENN 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Louisiana Tech
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Kennesaw State it would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for Louisiana Tech: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech offenseEPA per play gained | −0.08 | −0.02 | worse by 0.06 |
| Louisiana Tech defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | −0.05 | worse by 0.20 |
| Kennesaw State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | −0.06 | better by 0.21 |
| Kennesaw State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.08 | +0.03 | better by 0.11 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Louisiana Tech wins 8% of them, Kennesaw State 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kennesaw State by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech by 17+ | 0.5% |
| Louisiana Tech by 9–16 | 2.4% |
| Louisiana Tech by 1–8 | 4.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Kennesaw State by 1–8 | 17.6% |
| Kennesaw State by 9–16 | 18.0% |
| Kennesaw State by 17+ | 55.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Louisiana Tech 5 for 52 yards, Kennesaw State 8 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Delay of Game on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LT +0.8 pts |
| Q1 13:13 | Illegal Formation on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KENN +0.3 pts |
| Q1 7:45 | Neutral Zone Infraction on Kennesaw State, 1 yard · pre-snap | +1% LT +0.8 pts |
| Q1 7:12 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 6 yards | +1% LT +0.4 pts |
| Q1 4:23 | Roughing the Passer on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +2% KENN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 6:20 | Horse Collar Tackle on Louisiana Tech, 9 yards | +1% KENN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:46 | Ineligible Downfield on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards | +1% KENN +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:06 | Offside on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LT +0.5 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards | +2% KENN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:20 | Illegal Formation on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LT +0.5 pts |
| Q3 4:20 | Pass Interference on Kennesaw State, 15 yards | +3% LT +1.5 pts |
| Q4 13:32 | Unnecessary Roughness on Louisiana Tech, 13 yards | 0% KENN +1.1 pts |
| Q4 2:10 | Face Mask on Kennesaw State, 15 yards | 0% LT +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Kennesaw State’s chance of winning
As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:58 | Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% LT | LT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:45 | Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +5% LT | LT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 13:14 | Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +5% KENN | KENN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 11:11 | Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% KENN | KENN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 8:03 | Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +4% KENN | KENN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 7:07 | Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% LT | LT: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 4:30 | Louisiana Tech was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +4% KENN | LT: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 7:19 | Louisiana Tech was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +5% KENN | LT: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Louisiana Tech 0% · Kennesaw State 100%
- Final margin
- Kennesaw State by 28
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for Kennesaw State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kennesaw State by 24.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Louisiana Tech 8% · Kennesaw State 92% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Louisiana Tech · 
Kennesaw State
More from Week 7 2025
- Missouri State at Middle Tennessee MOST 22–20 · replay 40% for the winner
- Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston JXST 29–27 · replay 64% for the winner
- Liberty at UTEP LIB 19–8 · replay 95% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Troy at Texas State TROY 48–41 · replay 31% for the winner
- Iowa State at Colorado COLO 24–17 · replay 44% for the winner