Week 7 2025 · October 8, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 19 of the 27 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Liberty at UTEP, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Liberty beat UTEP 19–8, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Liberty wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Liberty was a 54% favorite.
Final
 Liberty Flames | 19 |
|---|---|
 UTEP Miners | 8 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Liberty about even · −5 UTEP
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liberty wins 10, UTEP wins 0.
- 1 LIB 37 UTEP 0
- 2 LIB 35 UTEP 6
- 3 LIB 30 UTEP 5
- 4 LIB 24 UTEP 3
- 5 LIB 20 UTEP 0
- 6 LIB 24 UTEP 7
- 7 LIB 14 UTEP 0
- 8 LIB 13 UTEP 0
- 9 LIB 14 UTEP 7
- 10 LIB 10 UTEP 6
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Liberty wins 95% of them, UTEP 5%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Liberty by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liberty by 17+ | 62.3% |
| Liberty by 9–16 | 21.8% |
| Liberty by 1–8 | 11.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| UTEP by 1–8 | 2.5% |
| UTEP by 9–16 | 0.7% |
| UTEP by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Billingsley, 27 yds made · 88% expected
- J. Billingsley, 29 yds made · 86% expected
- J. Billingsley, 50 yds made · 53% expected
- J. Billingsley, 41 yds made · 70% expected
- J. Billingsley, 43 yds missed · 66% expected
Penalties: Liberty 6 for 64 yards, UTEP 2 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:40 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% UTEP +1.9 pts |
| Q2 7:18 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UTEP, 15 yards | +1% LIB +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:47 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Liberty, 12 yards | 0% UTEP +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:55 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Liberty, 15 yards | +1% UTEP +0.4 pts |
| Q3 11:24 | Intentional Grounding on Liberty, 7 yards | +4% UTEP +2.8 pts |
| Q3 0:34 | Delay of Game on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTEP +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:58 | Personal Foul on UTEP, 15 yards | +1% LIB +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:37 | Personal Foul on Liberty, 15 yards | 0% LIB +1.1 pts |
When it happened
UTEP’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 51%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:55 | UTEP converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +2% UTEP | UTEP: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:40 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% UTEP | UTEP: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:58 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +4% UTEP | LIB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 9:23 | Liberty converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +4% LIB | LIB: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 7:29 | Liberty converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +4% LIB | LIB: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 11:24 | Intentional Grounding on Liberty, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +4% UTEP | UTEP: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 11:18 | J. Billingsley made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before | +3% LIB | LIB: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 10:02 | Liberty converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +3% LIB | LIB: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liberty 89% · UTEP 11%
- Final margin
- Liberty by 11
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for Liberty
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liberty by 7.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Liberty 95% · UTEP 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 19 of the 27 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Liberty · 
UTEP
More from Week 7 2025
- Missouri State at Middle Tennessee MOST 22–20 · replay 40% for the winner
- Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston JXST 29–27 · replay 64% for the winner
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- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
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- Iowa State at Colorado COLO 24–17 · replay 44% for the winner