luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025

SMU at Wake Forest, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

Wake Forest beat SMU 13–12, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

An off day for SMU: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Wake Forest it would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 30%. The numbers

Before kickoff SMU was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:55 left): Wake Forest fumbled and SMU recovered, worth 21 points of win probability to SMU.

Final

SMU Mustangs 12
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 13

October 25, 2025 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Closing line: SMU −5.5

Luck index +30 Wake Forest lucky · −30 SMU

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. SMU wins 3, Wake Forest wins 7.

  1. 1 SMU 21 WAKE 3
  2. 2 SMU 21 WAKE 13
  3. 3 SMU 10 WAKE 7
  4. 4 SMU 14 WAKE 16
  5. 5 SMU 9 WAKE 14
  6. 6 SMU 21 WAKE 29
  7. 7 SMU 20 WAKE 31
  8. 8 SMU 13 WAKE 28
  9. 9 SMU 23 WAKE 44
  10. 10 SMU 9 WAKE 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for SMU

Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Wake Forest it would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 30%.

33 points apart for SMU: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
SMU offenseEPA per play gained −0.36 +0.14 worse by 0.50
SMU defenseEPA per play allowed −0.20 +0.01 better by 0.20
Wake Forest offenseEPA per play gained −0.20 +0.07 worse by 0.26
Wake Forest defenseEPA per play allowed −0.36 +0.04 better by 0.40

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

SMU wins 30% of them, Wake Forest 70%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wake Forest by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
SMU by 17+5.5%
SMU by 9–168.5%
SMU by 1–814.7%
Level after regulation3.8%
Wake Forest by 1–822.0%
Wake Forest by 9–1620.8%
Wake Forest by 17+24.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.4 points to Wake Forest: the final margin was Wake Forest by 1, without the luck SMU by 6.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Calvert, 25 yds made · 90% expected
  • S. Keltner, 36 yds made · 79% expected
  • S. Keltner, 35 yds made · 81% expected
  • C. Calvert, 54 yds missed · 46% expected
  • S. Keltner, 43 yds missed · 67% expected
  • C. Calvert, 50 yds made · 53% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: SMU 5 for 50 yards, Wake Forest 6 for 51 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:33 Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 11 yards +3% SMU +1.9 pts
Q1 0:05 Illegal Substitution on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SMU +0.8 pts
Q2 3:13 Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards +2% SMU +0.8 pts
Q2 1:46 False Start on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAKE +0.2 pts
Q2 0:53 Personal Foul on SMU, 12 yards +2% WAKE +0.7 pts
Q3 13:44 Face Mask on SMU, 15 yards +3% WAKE +0.9 pts
Q3 3:04 Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 15 yards +8% SMU +2.2 pts
Q3 0:22 Illegal Formation on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SMU +0.5 pts
Q4 14:10 Unnecessary Roughness on SMU, 10 yards +2% WAKE +0.4 pts
Q4 10:09 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% SMU +1.2 pts
Q4 7:31 Face Mask on SMU, 8 yards +2% WAKE +0.5 pts

When it happened

Wake Forest’s chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Wake Forest was ahead in it, below while SMU was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:56 SMU converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% SMU SMU: Field goal
2 Q3 5:52 Wake Forest was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +13% SMU WAKE: Turnover
3 Q3 3:04 Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% SMU SMU: Touchdown
4 Q3 2:05 Wake Forest converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% WAKE WAKE: Turnover
5 Q3 0:52 Wake Forest converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% WAKE WAKE: Turnover
6 Q4 4:26 Wake Forest converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +11% WAKE WAKE: Turnover
7 Q4 1:56 Wake Forest converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +19% WAKE WAKE: Turnover
8 Q4 1:55 Wake Forest fumbled and SMU recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% SMU WAKE: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

SMU 79% · Wake Forest 21%

Final margin
Wake Forest by 1
Luck in points
7.4 for Wake Forest
Luck-adjusted margin
SMU by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
SMU 30% · Wake Forest 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · SMU · Wake Forest

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