Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Boston College at Louisville, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisville beat Boston College 38–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Louisville wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Louisville was a 95% favorite.
Final
 Boston College Eagles | 24 |
|---|---|
 Louisville Cardinals | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Louisville about even · −12 Boston College
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Boston College wins 1, Louisville wins 9.
- 1 BC 42 LOU 34
- 2 BC 21 LOU 24
- 3 BC 19 LOU 27
- 4 BC 14 LOU 28
- 5 BC 24 LOU 42
- 6 BC 17 LOU 38
- 7 BC 10 LOU 35
- 8 BC 7 LOU 35
- 9 BC 7 LOU 41
- 10 BC 7 LOU 51
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Boston College wins 12% of them, Louisville 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisville by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Boston College by 17+ | 1.9% |
| Boston College by 9–16 | 3.2% |
| Boston College by 1–8 | 6.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Louisville by 1–8 | 12.6% |
| Louisville by 9–16 | 14.8% |
| Louisville by 17+ | 59.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Lombardo, 38 yds made · 79% expected
- C. Ranvier, 52 yds missed · 52% expected
- C. Ranvier, 41 yds made · 72% expected
Penalties: Boston College 5 for 40 yards, Louisville 6 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:03 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LOU +1.2 pts |
| Q1 12:00 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BC +0.3 pts |
| Q2 2:52 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Boston College, 15 yards | +2% LOU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BC +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:10 | Delay of Game on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BC +0.3 pts |
| Q3 10:23 | Illegal Touching on Boston College, 0 yards | +2% LOU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 6:06 | Unnecessary Roughness on Boston College, 15 yards | +1% LOU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:44 | Holding on Louisville, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% BC +1.5 pts |
| Q3 1:22 | False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BC +0.4 pts |
| Q4 12:11 | Holding on Louisville, 10 yards | 0% BC +1.1 pts |
| Q4 2:28 | Holding on Louisville, 10 yards | +1% BC +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Louisville’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:32 | Boston College converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +2% BC | BC: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 14:11 | Louisville was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +2% BC | LOU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 12:29 | Boston College converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +3% BC | BC: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 10:04 | Boston College was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +2% LOU | BC: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 2:52 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Boston College, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% LOU | LOU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 2:51 | Louisville fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% LOU | LOU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 1:56 | Louisville converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +2% LOU | LOU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 10:23 | Illegal Touching on Boston College, 0 yardsJudgment calls | +2% LOU | LOU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Boston College 0% · Louisville 100%
- Final margin
- Louisville by 14
- Luck in points
- 6.4 for Boston College
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisville by 20.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Boston College 12% · Louisville 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Boston College · 
Louisville
More from Week 9 2025
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- SMU at Wake Forest WAKE 13–12 · replay 70% for the winner
- NC State at Pittsburgh PITT 53–34 · replay 78% for the winner
- California at Virginia Tech VT 42–34 · replay 97% for the winner
- Syracuse at Georgia Tech GT 41–16 · replay 97% for the winner
- Stanford at Miami MIA 42–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner