68 Ventures Bowl · December 17, 2025
Louisiana vs Delaware, 68 Ventures Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?
Delaware beat Louisiana 20–13, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Louisiana was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:49 left): Louisiana converted 4th & 6, worth 9 points of win probability to Louisiana.
Final
 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 13 |
|---|---|
 Delaware Blue Hens | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Delaware lucky · −26 Louisiana
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Louisiana wins 3, Delaware wins 7.
- 1 UL 31 DEL 13
- 2 UL 31 DEL 24
- 3 UL 13 DEL 10
- 4 UL 7 DEL 10
- 5 UL 24 DEL 30
- 6 UL 17 DEL 26
- 7 UL 19 DEL 33
- 8 UL 20 DEL 38
- 9 UL 21 DEL 44
- 10 UL 7 DEL 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Louisiana wins 26% of them, Delaware 74%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Delaware by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Louisiana by 17+ | 3.8% |
| Louisiana by 9–16 | 7.4% |
| Louisiana by 1–8 | 13.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Delaware by 1–8 | 21.8% |
| Delaware by 9–16 | 21.3% |
| Delaware by 17+ | 30.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Sterner, 39 yds missed · 75% expected
- T. Sterner, 22 yds made · 93% expected
- N. Reed, 33 yds made · 81% expected
- N. Reed, 27 yds made · 88% expected
- T. Sterner, 39 yds made · 74% expected
- N. Reed, 52 yds blocked · 49% expected
Penalties: Louisiana 1 for 5 yards, Delaware 2 for 29 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:49 | Pass Interference on Delaware, 14 yards | 0% UL +0.1 pts |
| Q2 3:57 | Offside on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:23 | Pass Interference on Delaware, 15 yards | 0% UL +1.8 pts |
When it happened
Delaware’s chance of winning
As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:16 | Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedT. Sterner missed a 39-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him | +4% DEL | DEL: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 6:59 | Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +3% DEL | DEL: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 4:53 | Delaware was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedLouisiana was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +4% UL | DEL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 3:57 | Delaware converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedDelaware converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expectedOffside on Louisiana, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% DEL | DEL: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 12:40 | Delaware converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedLouisiana was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +6% DEL | DEL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 12:53 | Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedLouisiana converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedLouisiana was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedN. Reed had a 52-yard field goal blockedKicks · 49% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before | +3% UL | UL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 7:49 | Louisiana converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedDelaware converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expectedDelaware was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +9% UL | UL: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 3:04 | Delaware was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedLouisiana was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% UL | DEL: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Louisiana 5% · Delaware 95%
- Final margin
- Delaware by 7
- Luck in points
- 4.7 for Louisiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Delaware by 11.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Louisiana 26% · Delaware 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · 
Louisiana · 
Delaware
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