luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl · December 26, 2025

Florida International vs UTSA, SERVPRO First Responder Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

UTSA beat Florida International 57–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UTSA wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff UTSA was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:26 left): Return touchdown by Florida International, worth 11 points of win probability to Florida International.

Final

Florida International Panthers 20
UTSA Roadrunners 57

December 26, 2025 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · Closing line: UTSA −7

Luck index +5 UTSA about even · −5 Florida International

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Florida International wins 0, UTSA wins 10.

  1. 1 FIU 27 UTSA 31
  2. 2 FIU 17 UTSA 28
  3. 3 FIU 24 UTSA 38
  4. 4 FIU 13 UTSA 30
  5. 5 FIU 17 UTSA 37
  6. 6 FIU 17 UTSA 41
  7. 7 FIU 17 UTSA 44
  8. 8 FIU 16 UTSA 48
  9. 9 FIU 14 UTSA 50
  10. 10 FIU 3 UTSA 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Florida International wins 5% of them, UTSA 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UTSA by 37.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Florida International by 17+0.5%
Florida International by 9–161.3%
Florida International by 1–83.2%
Level after regulation0.6%
UTSA by 1–810.4%
UTSA by 9–1613.0%
UTSA by 17+71.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.2 points to UTSA: the final margin was UTSA by 37, without the luck UTSA by 22.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Petro, 37 yds made · 78% expected
  • M. Petro, 36 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Florida International 4 for 31 yards, UTSA 9 for 113 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:13 Pass Interference on UTSA, 15 yards 0% FIU +0.1 pts
Q1 14:01 Holding on UTSA, 10 yards +1% FIU +0.7 pts
Q2 13:21 False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UTSA +0.5 pts
Q2 12:30 Pass Interference on Florida International, 15 yards +1% UTSA +0.8 pts
Q2 12:21 Holding on UTSA, 10 yards +1% FIU +0.6 pts
Q2 8:41 Pass Interference on UTSA, 15 yards +2% FIU +1.1 pts
Q2 1:08 Illegal Forward Pass on Florida International, 5 yards 0% UTSA +0.3 pts
Q2 0:37 Personal Foul on UTSA, 15 yards +1% FIU +1.6 pts
Q2 0:30 Pass Interference on UTSA, 13 yards 0% FIU 0.0 pts
Q2 0:20 Offside on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FIU +0.7 pts
Q3 8:51 Holding on Florida International, 6 yards +1% UTSA +1.7 pts
Q3 7:47 Pass Interference on UTSA, 15 yards 0% FIU +1.8 pts
Q3 3:27 Personal Foul on UTSA, 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% FIU +2.2 pts

When it happened

UTSA’s chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UTSA was ahead in it, below while Florida International was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:05 Florida International converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% FIU FIU: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:26 Return touchdown by Florida InternationalSpecial teams +11% FIU FIU: Punt
3 Q1 3:12 Florida International was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +2% UTSA FIU: Turnover
4 Q2 13:21 Florida International was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedFalse Start on Florida International, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% UTSA FIU: Punt
5 Q2 10:53 UTSA converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% UTSA UTSA: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:02 UTSA fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% UTSA UTSA: Touchdown
7 Q2 5:57 Florida International was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +3% UTSA FIU: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 5:18 Florida International was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +3% UTSA FIU: End of half

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Florida International 0% · UTSA 100%

Final margin
UTSA by 37
Luck in points
14.2 for UTSA
Luck-adjusted margin
UTSA by 22.8
Replay with same day's form
Florida International 5% · UTSA 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Florida International · UTSA

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