Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl · December 19, 2025
Memphis vs NC State, Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?
NC State beat Memphis 31–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, NC State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff NC State was a 59% favorite.
Final
 Memphis Tigers | 7 |
|---|---|
 NC State Wolfpack | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 NC State about even · −2 Memphis
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Memphis wins 0, NC State wins 10.
- 1 MEM 13 NCSU 17
- 2 MEM 40 NCSU 51
- 3 MEM 28 NCSU 44
- 4 MEM 17 NCSU 38
- 5 MEM 17 NCSU 42
- 6 MEM 13 NCSU 42
- 7 MEM 7 NCSU 41
- 8 MEM 14 NCSU 52
- 9 MEM 2 NCSU 48
- 10 MEM 0 NCSU 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Memphis wins 2% of them, NC State 98%. The line is what actually happened: NC State by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Memphis by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Memphis by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Memphis by 1–8 | 1.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| NC State by 1–8 | 4.8% |
| NC State by 9–16 | 9.0% |
| NC State by 17+ | 84.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Spetic, 56 yds missed · 45% expected
- K. Vinesett, 51 yds made · 52% expected
Penalties: Memphis 6 for 65 yards, NC State 2 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:51 | Ineligible Downfield on Memphis, 5 yards | 0% MEM +0.1 pts |
| Q1 8:18 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yards | +1% NCSU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:23 | Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yards | +2% NCSU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 3:15 | Face Mask on NC State, 15 yards | +1% MEM +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:22 | False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NCSU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 10:14 | Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yards | +1% NCSU +2.4 pts |
| Q3 8:06 | Holding on NC State, 10 yards | 0% MEM +2.3 pts |
| Q4 14:59 | Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yards | 0% NCSU +1.9 pts |
When it happened
NC State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:18 | Memphis converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedMemphis converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedMemphis was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedHolding on Memphis, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% MEM | MEM: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 8:11 | NC State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +2% NCSU | NCSU: End of half |
| 3 | Q1 4:23 | Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% NCSU | NCSU: End of half |
| 4 | Q1 4:16 | Memphis was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +6% NCSU | MEM: Turnover |
| 5 | Q1 3:21 | NC State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +4% NCSU | NCSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 13:33 | Memphis converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +1% MEM | MEM: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 10:33 | G. Spetic missed a 56-yard field goalKicks · 45% expected for him, 5 of 8 from 45+ before | +1% NCSU | MEM: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 8:03 | K. Vinesett made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 2 of 5 from 45+ before | +2% NCSU | NCSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Memphis 0% · NC State 100%
- Final margin
- NC State by 24
- Luck in points
- 6.2 for NC State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- NC State by 17.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Memphis 2% · NC State 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · 
Memphis · 
NC State
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