Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl · January 2, 2026
Rice vs Texas State, Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 2026: who deserved to win?
Texas State beat Rice 41–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas State was a 90% favorite.
Final
 Rice Owls | 10 |
|---|---|
 Texas State Bobcats | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Texas State about even · −2 Rice
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rice wins 0, Texas State wins 10.
- 1 RICE 20 TXST 26
- 2 RICE 14 TXST 26
- 3 RICE 16 TXST 31
- 4 RICE 0 TXST 19
- 5 RICE 0 TXST 22
- 6 RICE 14 TXST 39
- 7 RICE 3 TXST 31
- 8 RICE 14 TXST 45
- 9 RICE 0 TXST 35
- 10 RICE 3 TXST 47
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rice wins 2% of them, Texas State 98%. The line is what actually happened: Texas State by 31.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rice by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Rice by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Rice by 1–8 | 1.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Texas State by 1–8 | 5.9% |
| Texas State by 9–16 | 10.0% |
| Texas State by 17+ | 82.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Robles, 30 yds made · 89% expected
- T. Robles, 29 yds made · 90% expected
- E. Gota, 28 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Rice 5 for 57 yards, Texas State 7 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:01 | Holding on Rice, 7 yards | +1% TXST +1.2 pts |
| Q2 8:42 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Rice, 15 yards | 0% TXST +2.8 pts |
| Q2 8:07 | Block Below the Waist on Rice, 15 yards | +1% TXST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 4:38 | Pass Interference on Texas State, 15 yards | +2% RICE +2.7 pts |
| Q2 1:49 | Illegal Block on Texas State, 10 yards | 0% RICE +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:42 | Delay of Game on Texas State, 2 yards · pre-snap | +1% RICE +0.9 pts |
| Q3 8:20 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | 0% RICE +0.9 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TXST +0.5 pts |
| Q4 12:19 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | 0% RICE +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:10 | Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RICE +0.3 pts |
| Q4 6:59 | Unnecessary Roughness on Texas State, 5 yards | 0% RICE +1.0 pts |
| Q4 4:10 | Pass Interference on Rice, 15 yards | 0% TXST +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Texas State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:44 | Texas State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +1% RICE | TXST: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 7:39 | Texas State was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +2% RICE | TXST: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 3:27 | Texas State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +2% RICE | TXST: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 0:57 | Rice was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +1% TXST | RICE: Turnover |
| 5 | Q1 0:25 | Rice converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +4% RICE | RICE: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 13:03 | Texas State converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +3% TXST | TXST: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 4:38 | Pass Interference on Texas State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% RICE | RICE: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 0:09 | Rice converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +2% RICE | RICE: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rice 0% · Texas State 100%
- Final margin
- Texas State by 31
- Luck in points
- 6.5 for Rice
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas State by 37.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Rice 2% · Texas State 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · 
Rice · 
Texas State
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