Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Buffalo at Bowling Green, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Buffalo beat Bowling Green 28–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Buffalo wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Bowling Green: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Buffalo it would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers
Before kickoff Bowling Green was a 56% favorite.
Final
 Buffalo Bulls | 28 |
|---|---|
 Bowling Green Falcons | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Buffalo about even · −1 Bowling Green
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Buffalo wins 10, Bowling Green wins 0.
- 1 BUF 44 BGSU 0
- 2 BUF 43 BGSU 6
- 3 BUF 36 BGSU 3
- 4 BUF 36 BGSU 7
- 5 BUF 26 BGSU 0
- 6 BUF 24 BGSU 0
- 7 BUF 21 BGSU 0
- 8 BUF 24 BGSU 7
- 9 BUF 13 BGSU 0
- 10 BUF 21 BGSU 13
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Bowling Green
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Buffalo it would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
42 points apart for Bowling Green: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.03 | better by 0.05 |
| Buffalo defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.45 | +0.04 | better by 0.49 |
| Bowling Green offenseEPA per play gained | −0.45 | +0.03 | worse by 0.48 |
| Bowling Green defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.04 | worse by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Buffalo wins 99% of them, Bowling Green 1%. The line is what actually happened: Buffalo by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Buffalo by 17+ | 83.4% |
| Buffalo by 9–16 | 10.9% |
| Buffalo by 1–8 | 4.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Bowling Green by 1–8 | 0.9% |
| Bowling Green by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Bowling Green by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Howes, 42 yds missed · 70% expected
- J. Kleather, 51 yds made · 54% expected
Penalties: Buffalo 4 for 35 yards, Bowling Green 1 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:30 | Pass Interference on Bowling Green, 15 yards | +3% BUF +1.4 pts |
| Q2 7:23 | False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BGSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:18 | Delay of Game on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BGSU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 2:12 | Holding on Buffalo, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% BGSU +3.5 pts |
| Q4 0:30 | Pass Interference on Buffalo, 15 yards | 0% BGSU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Bowling Green’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:12 | Bowling Green was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +6% BUF | BGSU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 9:27 | Bowling Green converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +4% BGSU | BGSU: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 7:30 | Bowling Green fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% BGSU | BGSU: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q1 2:59 | Bowling Green was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% BUF | BGSU: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 1:37 | Buffalo converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +5% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 13:55 | Bowling Green converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% BGSU | BGSU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 12:00 | Bowling Green was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +6% BUF | BGSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 1:17 | Bowling Green fumbled and Buffalo recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% BUF | BGSU: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Buffalo 100% · Bowling Green 0%
- Final margin
- Buffalo by 25
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for Bowling Green
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buffalo by 28.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Buffalo 99% · Bowling Green 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Buffalo · 
Bowling Green
More from Week 10 2025
- Central Michigan at Western Michigan WMU 24–21 · replay 48% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- West Virginia at Houston WVU 45–35 · replay 42% for the winner
- Navy at North Texas UNT 31–17 · replay 48% for the winner
- Virginia at California UVA 31–21 · replay 54% for the winner