Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Central Michigan at Western Michigan, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Western Michigan beat Central Michigan 24–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Western Michigan wins 5 of 10.
Before kickoff Western Michigan was a 65% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 2:08 left): Western Michigan converted 4th & 5, worth 34 points of win probability to Western Michigan.
Final
 Central Michigan Chippewas | 21 |
|---|---|
 Western Michigan Broncos | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Western Michigan lucky · −52 Central Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Central Michigan wins 5, Western Michigan wins 5.
- 1 CMU 24 WMU 3
- 2 CMU 24 WMU 10
- 3 CMU 31 WMU 21
- 4 CMU 7 WMU 0
- 5 CMU 17 WMU 14
- 6 CMU 0 WMU 3
- 7 CMU 9 WMU 14
- 8 CMU 20 WMU 28
- 9 CMU 14 WMU 27
- 10 CMU 7 WMU 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Central Michigan wins 52% of them, Western Michigan 48%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Western Michigan by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Central Michigan by 17+ | 11.4% |
| Central Michigan by 9–16 | 18.1% |
| Central Michigan by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Western Michigan by 1–8 | 26.5% |
| Western Michigan by 9–16 | 12.1% |
| Western Michigan by 17+ | 8.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Central Michigan 6 for 60 yards, Western Michigan 7 for 59 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:35 | Running Into the Kicker on Central Michigan, 5 yards | +1% WMU +0.5 pts |
| Q1 8:33 | Offside on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CMU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 7:43 | Pass Interference on Western Michigan, 8 yards | +7% CMU +3.4 pts |
| Q1 4:09 | Roughing the Passer on Western Michigan, 6 yards | +3% CMU +1.1 pts |
| Q1 2:16 | Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yards | +3% CMU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 9:02 | Personal Foul on Central Michigan, 5 yards | +8% WMU +3.5 pts |
| Q2 7:43 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Western Michigan, 15 yards | +2% CMU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 6:13 | Unnecessary Roughness on Central Michigan, 15 yards | +5% WMU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 13:44 | Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards | +9% WMU +2.4 pts |
| Q4 13:38 | Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% CMU +2.7 pts |
| Q4 13:06 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Central Michigan, 15 yards | +6% WMU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 10:34 | Delay of Game on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CMU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 2:01 | Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards | 0% WMU +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Western Michigan’s chance of winning
As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 9:02 | Personal Foul on Central Michigan, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +8% WMU | WMU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 3:04 | Central Michigan converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +10% CMU | CMU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 14:53 | Central Michigan converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +11% CMU | CMU: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 13:44 | Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +9% WMU | WMU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 13:38 | Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% CMU | CMU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 4:11 | Western Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +10% CMU | WMU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 3:31 | Western Michigan converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +10% WMU | WMU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 2:08 | The game turned hereWestern Michigan converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +34% WMU | WMU: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Central Michigan 46% · Western Michigan 54%
- Final margin
- Western Michigan by 3
- Luck in points
- 2.6 for Western Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Western Michigan by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Central Michigan 52% · Western Michigan 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Central Michigan · 
Western Michigan
More from Week 10 2025
- Buffalo at Bowling Green BUF 28–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- West Virginia at Houston WVU 45–35 · replay 42% for the winner
- Navy at North Texas UNT 31–17 · replay 48% for the winner
- Virginia at California UVA 31–21 · replay 54% for the winner