Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Navy at North Texas, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
North Texas beat Navy 31–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, North Texas wins 5 of 10.
Before kickoff North Texas was a 66% favorite.
Final
 Navy Midshipmen | 17 |
|---|---|
 North Texas Mean Green | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 North Texas lucky · −52 Navy
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Navy wins 5, North Texas wins 5.
- 1 NAVY 49 UNT 27
- 2 NAVY 22 UNT 7
- 3 NAVY 24 UNT 13
- 4 NAVY 20 UNT 14
- 5 NAVY 27 UNT 24
- 6 NAVY 14 UNT 17
- 7 NAVY 17 UNT 24
- 8 NAVY 7 UNT 17
- 9 NAVY 7 UNT 21
- 10 NAVY 14 UNT 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Navy wins 52% of them, North Texas 48%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: North Texas by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Navy by 17+ | 13.1% |
| Navy by 9–16 | 17.1% |
| Navy by 1–8 | 21.7% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| North Texas by 1–8 | 25.6% |
| North Texas by 9–16 | 12.4% |
| North Texas by 17+ | 8.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Kirkwood, 26 yds made · 88% expected
- K. Nguma, 21 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Navy 8 for 55 yards, North Texas 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:25 | Holding on Navy, 10 yards | +3% UNT +2.0 pts |
| Q1 3:26 | Offside on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NAVY +1.0 pts |
| Q2 14:20 | Offside on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNT +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:58 | Holding on North Texas, 10 yards | +1% NAVY +0.4 pts |
| Q2 7:14 | Kick Catch Interference on Navy, 15 yards | +1% UNT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:26 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNT +1.3 pts |
| Q3 13:46 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNT +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:43 | Delay of Game on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNT +0.5 pts |
| Q3 5:34 | False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UNT +0.8 pts |
| Q3 1:46 | Holding on North Texas, 10 yards | +1% NAVY +0.8 pts |
| Q4 3:41 | Offside on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNT +0.2 pts |
When it happened
North Texas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:25 | Holding on Navy, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 3:32 | North Texas converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +2% UNT | UNT: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:25 | Navy converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +3% NAVY | NAVY: Turnover |
| 4 | Q1 0:08 | Navy fumbled and North Texas recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% UNT | NAVY: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 9:48 | Navy converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +3% NAVY | NAVY: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 3:52 | North Texas converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +3% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 2:51 | North Texas was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected | +3% NAVY | UNT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 10:22 | Navy was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +2% UNT | NAVY: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Navy 4% · North Texas 96%
- Final margin
- North Texas by 14
- Luck in points
- 4.3 for North Texas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- North Texas by 9.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Navy 52% · North Texas 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Navy · 
North Texas
More from Week 10 2025
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Tulane at UTSA UTSA 48–26 · replay 81% for the winner
- UAB at UConn CONN 38–19 · replay 93% for the winner
- Memphis at Rice MEM 38–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- East Carolina at Temple ECU 45–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner