Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Houston at Arizona State, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Houston beat Arizona State 24–16, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Houston wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Houston.
Before kickoff Arizona State was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:51 left): Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arizona State, 0 yards, worth 16 points of win probability to Houston.
Final
 Houston Cougars | 24 |
|---|---|
 Arizona State Sun Devils | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +46 Houston lucky · −46 Arizona State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Houston wins 5, Arizona State wins 5.
- 1 HOU 30 ASU 3
- 2 HOU 38 ASU 22
- 3 HOU 28 ASU 17
- 4 HOU 31 ASU 24
- 5 HOU 24 ASU 21
- 6 HOU 13 ASU 16
- 7 HOU 15 ASU 21
- 8 HOU 13 ASU 22
- 9 HOU 17 ASU 31
- 10 HOU 0 ASU 23
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Houston wins 54% of them, Arizona State 46%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Houston by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Houston by 17+ | 14.5% |
| Houston by 9–16 | 15.6% |
| Houston by 1–8 | 21.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Arizona State by 1–8 | 20.4% |
| Arizona State by 9–16 | 14.5% |
| Arizona State by 17+ | 11.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Sanchez, 26 yds made · 93% expected
- J. Gomez, 31 yds missed · 86% expected
- J. Gomez, 42 yds missed · 68% expected
- J. Gomez, 47 yds made · 58% expected
Penalties: Houston 7 for 50 yards, Arizona State 11 for 72 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:53 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ASU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 9:26 | Illegal Block on Arizona State, 10 yards | +3% HOU +1.4 pts |
| Q1 1:12 | Offside on Arizona State, 0 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% HOU +1.7 pts |
| Q1 0:51 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arizona State, 0 yards | +16% HOU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 0:36 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | 0% HOU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:09 | Holding on Houston, 10 yards | +1% ASU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:09 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ASU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:04 | Pass Interference on Houston, 15 yards | +3% ASU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 2:25 | Illegal Block on Arizona State, 9 yards | +2% HOU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:26 | False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 14:48 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | +2% HOU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:15 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ASU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 6:39 | Illegal Shift on Arizona State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +8% HOU +3.4 pts |
| Q3 5:15 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ASU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:41 | Pass Interference on Arizona State, 8 yards | +1% HOU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 1:37 | Targeting on Arizona State, 0 yards | 0% HOU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:31 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% ASU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 9:08 | Unnecessary Roughness on Arizona State, 15 yards | +1% HOU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Arizona State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:18 | Houston converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +6% HOU | HOU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:30 | Arizona State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +4% ASU | ASU: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q1 6:08 | J. Gomez missed a 31-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him | +7% HOU | ASU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 1:12 | Offside on Arizona State, 0 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +4% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 0:51 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arizona State, 0 yardsJudgment calls | +16% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 8:09 | Houston was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedArizona State fumbled and Houston recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% HOU | HOU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 6:39 | Illegal Shift on Arizona State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +8% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 1:31 | False Start on Houston, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% ASU | ASU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Houston 56% · Arizona State 44%
- Final margin
- Houston by 8
- Luck in points
- 7.0 for Houston
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Houston by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Houston 54% · Arizona State 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Houston · 
Arizona State
More from Week 9 2025
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- TCU at West Virginia TCU 23–17 · replay 40% for the winner
- Baylor at Cincinnati CIN 41–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Texas Tech TTU 42–0 · replay 96% for the winner
- Kansas State at Kansas KSU 42–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Colorado at Utah UTAH 53–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner