Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
TCU at West Virginia, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
TCU beat West Virginia 23–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, TCU wins 4 of 10.
TCU won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against West Virginia it would win 88% of the time; with this day’s form, 40%. The numbers
Before kickoff TCU was an 86% favorite.
Final
 TCU Horned Frogs | 23 |
|---|---|
 West Virginia Mountaineers | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +60 TCU lucky · −60 West Virginia
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. TCU wins 4, West Virginia wins 6.
- 1 TCU 21 WVU 2
- 2 TCU 14 WVU 3
- 3 TCU 21 WVU 14
- 4 TCU 13 WVU 10
- 5 TCU 10 WVU 13
- 6 TCU 19 WVU 24
- 7 TCU 7 WVU 16
- 8 TCU 0 WVU 13
- 9 TCU 0 WVU 17
- 10 TCU 7 WVU 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
TCU won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against West Virginia it would win 88% of the time; with this day’s form, 40%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
48 points apart for TCU: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU offenseEPA per play gained | +0.08 | +0.15 | worse by 0.07 |
| TCU defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.49 | +0.06 | better by 0.55 |
| West Virginia offenseEPA per play gained | −0.49 | +0.02 | worse by 0.50 |
| West Virginia defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.16 | better by 0.07 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
TCU wins 40% of them, West Virginia 60%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: TCU by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| TCU by 17+ | 6.1% |
| TCU by 9–16 | 11.0% |
| TCU by 1–8 | 17.4% |
| Level after regulation | 5.5% |
| West Virginia by 1–8 | 24.1% |
| West Virginia by 9–16 | 18.1% |
| West Virginia by 17+ | 17.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. McCashland, 35 yds made · 79% expected
- N. McCashland, 22 yds made · 91% expected
- K. Hensley, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- N. McCashland, 41 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: TCU 7 for 60 yards, West Virginia 4 for 36 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:57 | Holding on West Virginia, 10 yards | +1% TCU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 13:13 | False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 10:42 | Holding on TCU, 10 yards | +1% WVU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 11:50 | Offside on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TCU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 11:21 | False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WVU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:17 | Pass Interference on West Virginia, 15 yards | +2% TCU +1.9 pts |
| Q2 4:32 | Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yards | +2% WVU +2.0 pts |
| Q2 1:51 | Holding on West Virginia, 6 yards | +1% TCU +2.1 pts |
| Q3 10:46 | Offside on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:26 | Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yards | +4% WVU +3.1 pts |
| Q4 3:14 | False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WVU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
West Virginia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:44 | West Virginia was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +3% TCU | WVU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 14:54 | West Virginia was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +2% TCU | WVU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 12:24 | West Virginia fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% WVU | WVU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 10:17 | Pass Interference on West Virginia, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% TCU | TCU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 5:05 | TCU was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +2% WVU | TCU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 12:29 | West Virginia fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% WVU | WVU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 12:26 | Pass Interference on TCU, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% WVU | WVU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 2:22 | TCU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedTCU fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% TCU | TCU: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
TCU 41% · West Virginia 59%
- Final margin
- TCU by 6
- Luck in points
- 7.7 for TCU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Virginia by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- TCU 40% · West Virginia 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
TCU · 
West Virginia
More from Week 9 2025
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- Houston at Arizona State HOU 24–16 · replay 54% for the winner
- Baylor at Cincinnati CIN 41–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Texas Tech TTU 42–0 · replay 96% for the winner
- Kansas State at Kansas KSU 42–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Colorado at Utah UTAH 53–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner