Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 51 of the 60 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Colorado at Utah, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
Utah beat Colorado 53–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Utah wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Utah was an 82% favorite.
Final
 Colorado Buffaloes | 7 |
|---|---|
 Utah Utes | 53 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Utah about even · 0 Colorado
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colorado wins 0, Utah wins 10.
- 1 COLO 10 UTAH 24
- 2 COLO 0 UTAH 21
- 3 COLO 0 UTAH 26
- 4 COLO 0 UTAH 30
- 5 COLO 0 UTAH 33
- 6 COLO 7 UTAH 43
- 7 COLO 3 UTAH 41
- 8 COLO 3 UTAH 44
- 9 COLO 0 UTAH 47
- 10 COLO 7 UTAH 61
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colorado wins 0% of them, Utah 100%. The line is what actually happened: Utah by 46.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colorado by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Colorado by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Colorado by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Utah by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Utah by 9–16 | 2.2% |
| Utah by 17+ | 96.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Curtis, 53 yds made · 47% expected
- D. Curtis, 23 yds made · 92% expected
- D. Curtis, 45 yds made · 62% expected
- D. Curtis, 59 yds missed · 40% expected
Penalties: Colorado 1 for 15 yards, Utah 6 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:09 | False Start on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% COLO +1.6 pts |
| Q2 9:42 | Personal Foul on Utah, 15 yards | 0% COLO +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:26 | Personal Foul on Utah, 15 yards | 0% COLO +1.6 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Offside on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% COLO +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:41 | Ineligible Downfield on Utah, 5 yards | 0% COLO +0.3 pts |
| Q3 10:45 | Personal Foul on Colorado, 15 yards | 0% UTAH +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:35 | Horse Collar Tackle on Utah, 15 yards | 0% COLO +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Utah’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:46 | Colorado fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% COLO | COLO: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:42 | Utah was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +1% COLO | UTAH: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 11:29 | Colorado converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +1% COLO | COLO: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 8:13 | Utah was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +1% COLO | UTAH: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 7:49 | Utah converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +3% UTAH | UTAH: Field goal |
| 6 | Q1 6:26 | Utah converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +1% UTAH | UTAH: Field goal |
| 7 | Q1 5:09 | False Start on Utah, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% COLO | COLO: End of half |
| 8 | Q1 4:51 | D. Curtis made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 47% expected for him, 0 of 3 from 45+ before | +2% UTAH | UTAH: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colorado 0% · Utah 100%
- Final margin
- Utah by 46
- Luck in points
- 8.3 for Utah
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah by 37.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Colorado 0% · Utah 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 51 of the 60 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Colorado · 
Utah
More from Week 9 2025
- BYU at Iowa State BYU 41–27 · replay 26% for the winner
- TCU at West Virginia TCU 23–17 · replay 40% for the winner
- Houston at Arizona State HOU 24–16 · replay 54% for the winner
- Baylor at Cincinnati CIN 41–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Texas Tech TTU 42–0 · replay 96% for the winner
- Kansas State at Kansas KSU 42–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Virginia at North Carolina UVA 17–16 · replay 15% for the winner
- South Florida at Memphis MEM 34–31 · replay 28% for the winner
- Akron at Buffalo AKR 24–16 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Arkansas AUB 33–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Kent State KENT 24–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Alabama at South Carolina ALA 29–22 · replay 38% for the winner