luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 47 of the 61 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Baylor at Cincinnati, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

Cincinnati beat Baylor 41–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Cincinnati wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Cincinnati was a 59% favorite.

Final

Baylor Bears 20
Cincinnati Bearcats 41

October 25, 2025 · Nippert Stadium · Closing line: Cincinnati −3.5

Luck index +8 Cincinnati about even · −8 Baylor

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Baylor wins 1, Cincinnati wins 9.

  1. 1 BAY 27 CIN 21
  2. 2 BAY 21 CIN 24
  3. 3 BAY 17 CIN 24
  4. 4 BAY 14 CIN 24
  5. 5 BAY 21 CIN 34
  6. 6 BAY 0 CIN 16
  7. 7 BAY 3 CIN 21
  8. 8 BAY 17 CIN 38
  9. 9 BAY 10 CIN 35
  10. 10 BAY 7 CIN 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Baylor wins 8% of them, Cincinnati 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cincinnati by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Baylor by 17+0.5%
Baylor by 9–161.8%
Baylor by 1–84.9%
Level after regulation1.5%
Cincinnati by 1–820.2%
Cincinnati by 9–1620.7%
Cincinnati by 17+50.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to Cincinnati: the final margin was Cincinnati by 21, without the luck Cincinnati by 16.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • S. Rusnak, 46 yds made · 63% expected
  • S. Rusnak, 36 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Baylor 3 for 40 yards, Cincinnati 7 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:15 Pass Interference on Baylor, 15 yards +5% CIN +2.9 pts
Q2 14:14 Delay of Game on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAY +0.8 pts
Q2 11:43 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards +2% CIN +1.5 pts
Q3 7:51 Pass Interference on Baylor, 15 yards +1% CIN +1.4 pts
Q3 7:16 Face Mask on Cincinnati, 15 yards +1% BAY +1.0 pts
Q3 4:36 Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yards +2% BAY +2.1 pts
Q4 14:30 Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yards +3% BAY +1.9 pts
Q4 13:34 Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 1 yard, wiping out the play 0% BAY +8.7 pts
Q4 12:56 Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards +5% BAY +2.0 pts
Q4 4:19 Personal Foul on Cincinnati, 14 yards 0% BAY +0.9 pts

When it happened

Cincinnati’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Cincinnati was ahead in it, below while Baylor was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:15 Pass Interference on Baylor, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q2 9:01 Baylor was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +3% CIN BAY: Turnover
3 Q3 12:19 Baylor converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +2% BAY BAY: End of half
4 Q3 11:05 Baylor converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +3% BAY BAY: End of half
5 Q3 2:26 Baylor converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +3% BAY BAY: End of half
6 Q4 14:30 Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% BAY BAY: End of game
7 Q4 12:56 Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% BAY BAY: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 7:40 Cincinnati converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +2% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Baylor 0% · Cincinnati 100%

Final margin
Cincinnati by 21
Luck in points
4.1 for Cincinnati
Luck-adjusted margin
Cincinnati by 16.9
Replay with same day's form
Baylor 8% · Cincinnati 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 47 of the 61 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Baylor · Cincinnati

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