luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025

Washington State at Colorado State, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

Washington State beat Colorado State 20–3, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff Colorado State was a 61% favorite.

Final

Washington State Cougars 20
Colorado State Rams 3

September 27, 2025 · Canvas Stadium · Closing line: Colorado State −4.5

Luck index +30 Washington State lucky · −30 Colorado State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington State wins 7, Colorado State wins 3.

  1. 1 WSU 31 CSU 3
  2. 2 WSU 28 CSU 7
  3. 3 WSU 31 CSU 14
  4. 4 WSU 32 CSU 19
  5. 5 WSU 23 CSU 14
  6. 6 WSU 30 CSU 24
  7. 7 WSU 17 CSU 14
  8. 8 WSU 7 CSU 10
  9. 9 WSU 10 CSU 17
  10. 10 WSU 10 CSU 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington State wins 70% of them, Colorado State 30%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington State by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington State by 17+24.6%
Washington State by 9–1619.6%
Washington State by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation6.8%
Colorado State by 1–814.9%
Colorado State by 9–167.8%
Colorado State by 17+3.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.5 points to Washington State: the final margin was Washington State by 17, without the luck Washington State by 12.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • I. Hankins, 50 yds made · 53% expected
  • J. Stevens, 37 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Stevens, 21 yds made · 95% expected
  • I. Hankins, 44 yds missed · 65% expected
  • I. Hankins, 43 yds blocked · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington State 4 for 40 yards, Colorado State 7 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:06 Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards +5% WSU +2.1 pts
Q1 5:27 Offside on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WSU +0.7 pts
Q1 2:14 False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CSU +0.9 pts
Q1 0:44 Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards +4% WSU +1.6 pts
Q1 0:27 Pass Interference on Washington State, 15 yards +3% CSU +1.4 pts
Q2 12:05 Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards +2% WSU +0.6 pts
Q2 11:07 False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WSU +0.7 pts
Q2 10:10 False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CSU +0.6 pts
Q2 5:11 Pass Interference on Washington State, 15 yards +2% CSU +0.9 pts
Q3 4:51 Personal Foul on Colorado State, 15 yards +3% WSU +3.0 pts
Q3 0:00 False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WSU +0.7 pts

When it happened

Colorado State’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Colorado State was ahead in it, below while Washington State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:32 I. Hankins made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before +4% CSU CSU: Punt
2 Q1 8:06 Holding on Colorado State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% WSU WSU: Field goal
3 Q1 0:44 Holding on Colorado State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% WSU WSU: Punt
4 Q1 0:27 Pass Interference on Washington State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% CSU CSU: Turnover
5 Q2 14:53 Colorado State fumbled and Washington State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% WSU CSU: Punt
6 Q2 13:17 Washington State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% WSU WSU: Punt
7 Q2 3:49 Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +4% WSU CSU: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 3:16 Colorado State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% WSU CSU: Missed field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington State 97% · Colorado State 3%

Final margin
Washington State by 17
Luck in points
4.5 for Washington State
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington State by 12.5
Replay with same day's form
Washington State 70% · Colorado State 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Washington State · Colorado State

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