luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025

Utah State at Vanderbilt, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

Vanderbilt beat Utah State 55–35, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Vanderbilt wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Vanderbilt was a 94% favorite.

Final

Utah State Aggies 35
Vanderbilt Commodores 55

September 27, 2025 · FirstBank Stadium · Closing line: Vanderbilt −23.5

Luck index 0 Vanderbilt about even · 0 Utah State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Utah State wins 0, Vanderbilt wins 10.

  1. 1 USU 41 VAN 51
  2. 2 USU 20 VAN 38
  3. 3 USU 28 VAN 52
  4. 4 USU 10 VAN 38
  5. 5 USU 13 VAN 45
  6. 6 USU 10 VAN 45
  7. 7 USU 7 VAN 45
  8. 8 USU 7 VAN 51
  9. 9 USU 14 VAN 65
  10. 10 USU 7 VAN 65

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Utah State wins 0% of them, Vanderbilt 100%. The line is what actually happened: Vanderbilt by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Utah State by 17+0.0%
Utah State by 9–160.1%
Utah State by 1–80.2%
Level after regulation0.1%
Vanderbilt by 1–81.5%
Vanderbilt by 9–164.0%
Vanderbilt by 17+94.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to Utah State: the final margin was Vanderbilt by 20, without the luck Vanderbilt by 22.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • B. Taylor, 46 yds made · 65% expected
  • B. Taylor, 31 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Utah State 2 for 15 yards, Vanderbilt 5 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:17 False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USU +1.9 pts
Q1 1:58 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards +2% USU +1.4 pts
Q1 0:05 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% USU +5.6 pts
Q2 13:44 Roughing the Kicker on Vanderbilt, 15 yards +4% USU +4.1 pts
Q2 13:08 Illegal Formation on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% VAN +0.6 pts
Q2 6:07 Holding on Utah State, 10 yards +1% VAN +0.6 pts
Q4 1:55 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards 0% USU +1.2 pts

When it happened

Vanderbilt’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Vanderbilt was ahead in it, below while Utah State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:17 False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% USU USU: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:52 Utah State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +2% USU USU: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:58 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yardsJudgment calls +2% USU USU: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:05 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% USU USU: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:24 Utah State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +1% VAN USU: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:44 Roughing the Kicker on Vanderbilt, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% USU USU: Touchdown
7 Q2 11:22 Utah State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +2% USU USU: Punt
8 Q2 6:07 Holding on Utah State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +1% VAN VAN: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Utah State 0% · Vanderbilt 100%

Final margin
Vanderbilt by 20
Luck in points
2.7 for Utah State
Luck-adjusted margin
Vanderbilt by 22.7
Replay with same day's form
Utah State 0% · Vanderbilt 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Utah State · Vanderbilt

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