luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025

LSU at Ole Miss, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

Ole Miss beat LSU 24–19, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff Ole Miss was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:20 left): Pass Interference on LSU, 14 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to Ole Miss.

Final

LSU Tigers 19
Ole Miss Rebels 24

September 27, 2025 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Closing line: Ole Miss −2.5

Luck index +34 Ole Miss lucky · −34 LSU

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. LSU wins 3, Ole Miss wins 7.

  1. 1 LSU 27 MISS 10
  2. 2 LSU 26 MISS 17
  3. 3 LSU 20 MISS 17
  4. 4 LSU 14 MISS 17
  5. 5 LSU 10 MISS 15
  6. 6 LSU 7 MISS 17
  7. 7 LSU 17 MISS 28
  8. 8 LSU 13 MISS 28
  9. 9 LSU 13 MISS 34
  10. 10 LSU 13 MISS 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

LSU wins 34% of them, Ole Miss 66%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ole Miss by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
LSU by 17+6.1%
LSU by 9–169.9%
LSU by 1–815.7%
Level after regulation4.7%
Ole Miss by 1–822.0%
Ole Miss by 9–1618.4%
Ole Miss by 17+23.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to Ole Miss: the final margin was Ole Miss by 5, without the luck Ole Miss by 1.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Carneiro, 25 yds made · 93% expected
  • D. Ramos, 39 yds made · 76% expected
  • D. Ramos, 48 yds made · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: LSU 7 for 78 yards, Ole Miss 14 for 109 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:04 False Start on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LSU +1.0 pts
Q1 9:10 Offside on Ole Miss, 2 yards · pre-snap +1% MISS +0.6 pts
Q1 0:27 Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 2 yards +4% LSU +1.6 pts
Q1 0:18 Personal Foul on Ole Miss, 15 yards +4% LSU +1.6 pts
Q1 0:00 Offside on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LSU +0.7 pts
Q2 14:11 False Start on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LSU +0.7 pts
Q2 14:03 Face Mask on LSU, 15 yards +4% MISS +1.6 pts
Q2 12:57 Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% LSU +2.1 pts
Q2 11:22 Illegal Formation on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LSU +0.3 pts
Q2 7:53 Holding on LSU, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% MISS +1.7 pts
Q2 6:43 Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards +3% LSU +1.0 pts
Q2 6:19 Roughing the Passer on LSU, 15 yards +3% MISS +1.3 pts
Q2 6:06 Offside on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MISS +0.7 pts
Q2 5:20 Pass Interference on LSU, 14 yards, wiping out the play +12% MISS +4.2 pts
Q2 5:15 Pass Interference on LSU, 15 yards +2% MISS +0.7 pts
Q2 1:54 Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards +1% LSU +0.6 pts
Q3 8:20 Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 15 yards +2% LSU +1.0 pts
Q3 0:08 Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% LSU +1.8 pts
Q4 14:12 Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards +2% LSU +0.6 pts
Q4 6:13 False Start on LSU, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% MISS +0.7 pts
Q4 5:43 Offside on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LSU +0.5 pts

When it happened

Ole Miss’s chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Ole Miss was ahead in it, below while LSU was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:57 Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% LSU LSU: Punt
2 Q2 8:28 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% MISS MISS: Turnover
3 Q2 8:00 Ole Miss fumbled and LSU recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% LSU MISS: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:20 Pass Interference on LSU, 14 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% MISS MISS: Touchdown
5 Q3 11:54 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% MISS MISS: Punt
6 Q3 4:16 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% MISS MISS: Turnover
7 Q4 13:59 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +9% MISS MISS: Touchdown
8 Q4 6:03 LSU converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% LSU LSU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

LSU 39% · Ole Miss 61%

Final margin
Ole Miss by 5
Luck in points
3.2 for Ole Miss
Luck-adjusted margin
Ole Miss by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
LSU 34% · Ole Miss 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · LSU · Ole Miss

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